Former Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Sigmar Gabriel defended former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s policy on Russia. On the ARD talk show “maischberger” he praised the Minsk Agreements he initiated – with which a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was “delayed by eight years”.
Former Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs and SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel believes that Angela Merkel (CDU) would prevent a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine as Chancellor. “I am very confident that we will not end up in this war,” Gabriel said on the ARD “maischberger” talk show.
With the Minsk Agreements, Merkel “postponed the war for eight years,” according to the former Foreign Minister’s thesis. The chancellor wants to negotiate personally with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2021 – by which time there has been war between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine for years. But in the European Council only Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán supports Merkel. “The Europeans are basically out of the game,” and now US President Donald Trump has to negotiate the European issue. “We ourselves don’t dare to do it in 2021,” said Gabriel.
Gabriel was referring to Merkel’s statement to Ukrainian online media “Partizán” in early October. In it, the former Chancellor described the failed Minsk Agreement as “imperfect”. This was never “done well”, but “made things calm” between 2015 and 2021.
In 2021, she “felt that the Minsk Agreements were no longer taken seriously by Putin, and that’s why I wanted a new format, then together with President Macron, so that we could talk directly with Putin as the European Union,” Merkel said. However, the EU initiative did not happen because it was not supported by several countries – Merkel mentioned the Baltic countries and Poland. They were “afraid” that “we don’t have the same policy toward Russia.” Merkel continued, according to her, negotiations must be carried out.
With this statement, Merkel has at least indicated that the Central and Eastern European countries in question are equally responsible for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This is a picture that the Baltic states vehemently reject, citing, among other things, the unreliability of Putin’s past promises.
“Kicked out of the game”
However, Gabriel at least partially agrees with Merkel’s portrayal in “maischberger.” “First of all, history shows that because people did not negotiate with each other, big wars happened afterwards. Historical developments do not show that big wars happened during Angela Merkel’s time and at the time when she wanted to negotiate – but after.” Gabriel believes that UE missed an opportunity in 2021. “At the moment no one can say whether it will lead to success. All we can say is that because we didn’t do anything, we are out of the game.”
Under the leadership of Angela Merkel, the Minsk Agreements were signed in 2015 with the mediation of the OSCE, Germany, France, representatives of Ukraine, Russia and separatist groups in eastern Ukraine. It builds on the failed first Minsk Protocol of 2014 and aims, among other things, to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, initiate a ceasefire and elections in separatist regions and constitutional reform in Ukraine.
However, with Russia’s massive attack on Ukraine no later than February 2022, Minsk II is considered to have ultimately failed. The reasons include mutual distrust, ongoing hostilities, and lack of implementation of key points, such as control of the Ukrainian-Russian border or the special status of separatist territories.
The findings of the former SPD foreign minister are also extraordinary considering Germany’s long-standing dependence on Russian gas. Even after Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014, in violation of international law, Merkel has stuck to plans for the Nordstream 2 pipeline, even as Western partners, including Trump in his first term, have quickly warned about the risks and advised against the project.
When moderator Sandra Maischberger asked why Germany had remained dependent on Russian gas for so long, Gabriel cited three points: continued economic growth, the decision to phase out nuclear and coal energy, and the European Union’s decision in 2002 to declare energy policy a private matter for companies. “What do companies do when they are responsible for their own energy supply? They get the cheapest thing on the market: it’s Russian piped gas.”
Responding to Maischberger’s objection that political leaders in Germany support this policy, Gabriel said: “Politicians – except the Green Party – have consistently supported this policy, also against the background of the experience that for decades – even in the darkest times of the Cold War – we received natural gas from the Soviet Union and then Russia. Given the background of experience, no one in Germany has come to the conclusion that this could pose a risk.”
At that time, he himself “and Merkel in particular” were among those who sought to end the war already raging in eastern Ukraine, in part by suggesting that Putin send a UN mission. “He promised us that he would take part in something like that. In the end, none of it was effective. The result was the election of Donald Trump (2016, d. Red.) there is no longer any discussion at all about what can be done internationally to enforce the ceasefire that has been agreed.”
With the Minsk Agreement still in her sights, Angela Merkel postponed a “major war” against Ukraine for eight years. “I thought it made sense at the time, and we were confident that we could work with him (Putin, d. Red.) Steps in that direction continue.” At the time, no one predicted that Russian President Putin would attack all of Ukraine and “the West as a whole.”
Ukraine is “very far down Trump’s list of priorities.”
Regarding the current situation in Ukraine, Gabriel said: “If we look at what could happen at the end of negotiations in Ukraine today, then hopefully we are ready to at least salvage what was agreed in the Minsk Agreements.” But the situation looks “worse” now.
Ukraine is also “very far down the American president’s list of priorities.” This happened already in 2016, when Trump told him that this was a “European problem”. The question that now arises is how long the US President’s patience with Europe will last. “We know very well that without American help in Ukraine, we cannot stop Russia. If you want Ukraine not to lose, you have to fight for America to continue to support them,” Gabriel said.
Germany “has more capabilities than other countries, but there are skills we don’t have, that’s why we need America.” The former secretary of state touched on the competence of the American secret service. “One thing is clear: we need it (Trump, d. Red.) and must do everything to ensure that the situation that seems to have reached in Washington between Europe and him can be restored.
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