By Daniel Vigneron, journalist specializing in economics and European issues.
The massive growth in cross-border online trade, especially from China, is worrying European authorities. And for good reason: in 2023, according to the Jean Jaurès Foundation, 2.3 billion goods worth less than 150 euros were imported into Europe, almost double compared to the previous year, while in 2024 the estimate is more than 4 billion. 80% of these packages come from China. In France, to stem this rising tide, the government intends to apply a tax of two euros to all items in packages imported from outside the European Union with a value of less than €150. In the view of the authorities, Asia’s e-commerce and “ultra fast fashion” giants: Shein, Temu and AliExpress.
In the 2026 Finance Bill, which was being discussed in Parliament until the end of December, the new government of Lecornu II adopted, in article 22, the system of “ “a small section” of the draft law on the environmental impact of the textile industry was adopted by the Senate last June. A policy that at the end of September was the subject of a detailed opinion by the European Commission. The European Commission (as confirmed by a French diplomat stationed in Brussels), without officially opposing the French draft law, wants improvements in the system mainly due to the risk of distortion between countries or circumvention of regulations. And the Commission has clearly expressed its preference for a harmonized framework at European level.
This harmonization is already planned: within the framework of the European law on e-commerce (which will come into force in 2028 at the latest), a tax of two euros on small packages is planned at European level with the aim of compensating for the costs of managing customs controls generated by these billions of packages. And if we can understand France’s desire to protect its manufacturers and distributors in the fashion sector (23% of French e-commerce) from next year, then this Paris-only rider will be all doom and gloom.
Sword in the water?
First question: what will this tax bring to the budget? From the explanatory note to the articles of the bill it can be seen that of the 775 million small packages that entered France last year, only 97,000 customs checks were carried out, i.e. a verification rate of 0.125%! Not significant, especially if we mean to check the suitability of products for the environment, but above all completely ineffective in the case of future taxes on every item contained in every package, which a priori requires a systematic inspection of the packaging.
The tax administration said it expected revenues of 500 million from the two-euro tax. This amount is low compared to the number of packages and especially items that are potentially taxable. And this amount should be compared with about 300 million euros that can be spent on controlling one small parcel in 20 parcels, if we extrapolate the statistical data of customs! In short, from the point of view of budget revenues, small parcel taxes should be unproductive for public finances.
But the second question raised by the tax is much more troubling: will it significantly reduce the negative impact of low-price imports and does it not risk creating trade distortions between European countries? Remember that the tax imposed in France is imposed on products entering the national territory, and that the European Customs Union implies that this tax only applies to products originating from countries outside the EU. It is still necessary to clearly determine this origin. This is where the problem lies when it comes to small e-commerce packages.
If the economic model of certain Chinese platforms (Temu or AliExpress, for example) focuses primarily (but not entirely) on direct sales from the production region – most often China – then this does not apply to these giant companies. Shein. This Singapore-based group has actually developed a model based on international warehouses which according to Linko (a Chinese supply consulting company), “ the company regularly adjusts surface area according to changing consumer behavior.”
The location of Shein warehouses in the EU remains unclear and fluctuates (Belgium, Poland, Spain or Ireland are often cited, etc.). In any case, it is evident that express deliveries of Shein products in Europe often come – for reasons of distance and delays – from the brand’s warehouses located on the territory of the European Union. However, in this case, the product is considered to originate from the European Union and therefore will not be affected by the two euro tax upon its arrival in France. In the hypothesis of a purely French, or Country-specific tax, how can we prevent a group like Shein from adapting its distribution channels so that it essentially sends products imported from the EU and therefore not taxed to the countries in question? A shortcut that Shein will not take, especially since it does not require significant adaptation efforts, since its economic model, as we have said, is already based on multiplying warehouses in different countries.
This brings us to the third and final point: the fragility of these tax laws. The doubling of national taxes (Romania has implemented a tax of 5 euros for small areas while Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Greece are also considering it) is in fact contrary to the spirit of the European single market. This regulatory fragmentation will likely create legal insecurity for a number of cross-border operators dealing with actual gas-fired power plants. In addition, the uncertainty of what taxes will be imposed could result in them being equated with import duties, which member states cannot impose themselves, even if the taxes target countries outside the EU.
In short, although the efficiency, coherence and even relevance of the European Union is being questioned from all sides, should we really vote for a new exception in France that promises to be so unproductive?
