On Wednesday afternoon in France, the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, will vote to decide whether to suspend until the next presidential election (in 2027) the contested pension reform, which was approved in 2023 and gradually raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. This rule is contained in an important financial law, the law on social security (i.e. welfare) funds for 2026. This text is one of the two main laws that make up the state budget, and must be definitively approved by mid-December: two governments have failed in this regard in the past year, namely those of Michel Barnier and François Bayrou.
Even if the legislation were to pass today, it would have to pass through the Senate before becoming final.
Approving the suspension of pension reform is fundamental to the stability of the minority government of the current Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, from President Emmanuel Macron’s party. The request was made by the Socialist Party, which in return agreed not to carry out a no-confidence motion and therefore would not bring down this government either.
Pension reform has always been a much-discussed topic in France: it is considered one of the symbols of the presidency of Emmanuel Macron, who has always supported the need to limit the increase in costs of the French pension system, which has doubled in the last forty years and doubled in relation to GDP. Therefore, the fact that Lecornu proposed to suspend him was seen as a major concession. The law was so unpopular at the time that it was passed using article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to approve a measure without going through parliament and has been used several times in recent years by governments appointed by Macron.
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In these two years the opposition parties have never stopped criticizing Macron and his allies for implementing it and the Socialists have exploited this moment of great political instability to try, if not to cancel it, at least to temporarily suspend it, in the hope of a return after the 2027 presidential elections. However, not everyone agrees with this strategy, starting with their allies in France Insoumise, the radical left-wing party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
It is not certain that the suspension will be approved: everything will depend on how deputies from parties supporting Lecornu’s government, who have not yet commented, vote.
Who to choose
They have said that the Socialist Party, which supports the measure, will vote in favor; the right-wing Rassemblement National party, which has always fiercely opposed reform; and the Libertés, independents, outre-mer & territoires (LIOT) parliamentary group, consisting of 22 MPs ranging from center-right to center-left, which in 2023 submitted a motion of no confidence in the pension reform which was disapproved by just nine votes.
If all MPs respected their group’s indications, the decision would receive 214 votes in favor: less than the 289 votes needed for a simple majority, if everyone voted. However, it is almost certain that many lawmakers will abstain, lowering the minimum number of votes needed to pass the bill.
Who should vote against
In contrast, as mentioned, La France Insoumise, the Republican Party (center-right) and the majority of parliamentarians Horizons, the center-right party of former prime minister Édouard Philippe, is supporting the government. According to the latter two, delaying the law’s enactment amounts to deceiving the French public, making them think that it would remain economically and demographically sustainable to continue sending people into retirement at age 62.
France Insoumise, on the other hand, opposed the measure for the opposite reason, namely that they would only vote in favor of a complete repeal of the pension reform, and not just a suspension. For MP Aurélien Le Coq, delaying its enactment is not a “political victory” but simply “will put things right”. “We are not here to beg,” he said Franceinfo. Of course, this position received a lot of criticism from the Socialists, who accused the LFI of being more concerned with plundering their votes than with the good of French citizens.
Combined, these parties would get 155 votes, so much less than the supporting parties. Everything depends on decisions taken by parties who have not expressed an opinion, given no indication that they will vote, or have abstained.
The abstainers and the undecided
Among them are the Green Party and the Communists. For the Greens, voting against would mean going against the Socialist Party, with whom they often collaborate and are closer politically to them, but voting in favor would mean going against the wishes of France Insoumise, which is a very popular and profitable left-wing party to ally in elections. Therefore, they could also abstain, thereby making everyone a little unhappy.
Finally, there is still the United Right for the Republic, the party founded by Éric Ciotti with defectors from the Republican Party and allies Rassemblement National, and the parties that, together with Horizons, support the Lecornu government: it is they who form the Macronist parliamentary group Ensemble pour la République, led by former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, and Democratic Movement, centrist party of former Prime Minister François Bayrou.
On the one hand, these parties have an interest in passing this measure so that they can continue to regulate and pass budget laws. On the other hand, precisely because of the symbolic weight of pension reforms, voting in favor of them will be problematic for them. On Monday evening, Gabriel Attal advised his deputies to abstain and it was hoped that many would follow the advice.
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