AfD poll numbers are at an all-time high. That ARD-DeutschlandTrend extra But this also shows that he has almost exhausted his potential as a voter. Other parties must re-strengthen confidence in their competence.
Why is the AfD so strong? These are the questions your political competitors and much of society is asking. However, the AfD is a party that has been classified as “safe right-wing extremist” in four states, and further proceedings are underway.
The more powerful it is, the more difficult it is to form a government without a coalition, the “bigger” the coalition, and the more unclear the political direction. The question of whether and why the AfD continues to gain power has an impact on the stability of our society.
In one ARD-DeutschlandTrend extra In early November, a representative question was asked about the reasons for this development. The most important finding: According to those entitled to vote in Germany, AfD content and actors play a relatively minor role.
Respondents – regardless of whether they would vote for the AfD or not – cited other parties’ policies and the quality of the government’s work as the main reasons. Let’s be blunt: Why is the AfD so strong? Because voters only expect more effective policies from other parties.
Disappointment with other parties is the main driver
69 percent of those surveyed agreed with the sentence “The AfD will lose power again if the federal government makes progress in important political areas.” Even more important: 47 percent of AfD supporters see it that way too. This is not a promise to change parties if the government’s performance improves. But this means that almost half of AfD supporters can at least imagine this.
Of the five motives given for voting for the AfD, survey respondents most often cited “disappointment with other parties’ policies”. 60 percent of all and 39 percent of AfD supporters see this as the most important reason.
Among AfD supporters, the following reasons were “the AfD’s political concept” with 25 percent and “the way politicians from other parties deal with the AfD” with 15 percent. “Reporting the AfD in the media” played the smallest role for those surveyed. 6 percent each and AfD supporters said this.
AfD continues to make gains in surveys
The previous recipes of other parties in the fight for votes against the AfD clearly did not work. After capturing 10.3 percent in the 2021 federal election, he made it in ARD GermanyTrend With increasing dissatisfaction with the traffic light coalition starting in the summer of 2022, it will increase step by step – at its peak to 23 percent.
In the federal election in February, the survey achieved its best result with a gain of 20.8 percent, but did not reach the level of previous surveys. Since the spring, the figure has now risen to 26 percent.
Potential voters highly exploited
What is surprising is that, unlike other parties, the AfD is tapping into the potential of its current electorate. A party’s “potential” was determined by asking questioners on Sunday which party they imagined they would also vote for. At 28 percent, the AfD’s potential determined this way is only two points higher than the share in Sunday’s question.
For comparison: The EU is at 27 percent on Sunday’s question currently, but the potential is almost twice as high at 52 percent. Lowest SPD utilization. With a potential of 50 percent, they currently only want to choose 14 percent. Potential refers to all eligible voters, party share in Sunday’s question only refers to those who have decided and will vote.
What is visible about the AfD is that, on the one hand, its potential continues to grow as Sunday’s questions increase; meanwhile, there was no measurable decline. On the other hand, the potential is only slightly above the survey value. The AfD’s “hidden reserves” are much smaller than those of other parties.
During the traffic light coalition period between 2021 and 2024, the AfD was able to develop its potential significantly. All the substantive, political and tactical advances made by other parties remain largely ineffective – or even counterproductive.
Different assessments regarding cooperation with the AfD
This is true according to the findings ARD-Surveys, for example, where politicians from the SPD, the Greens, the Left and the Union demonstratively describe themselves as “democratic” parties – and thus the AfD as an undemocratic party. 52 percent of those surveyed suspected that the use of this kind of language would actually strengthen the AfD, not weaken it. 77 percent of AfD supporters see it that way.
The previous law because it could only be passed with votes from the AfD was also seen as strengthening the AfD – three out of five eligible voters saw the same and even four out of five AfD supporters. The majority saw his exclusion from the Bundestag presidency as only weakening the party.
The public is divided on the question of cooperation with the AfD. As many as 40 percent rule it out, and 30 percent look at it on a case-by-case basis. 25 percent want collaboration to be pursued. More than two-thirds of SPD, Green Party and Left Party supporters each reject cooperation, while AfD supporters also clearly support it.
It is interesting to look at the supporters of the European Union, where this debate is actually taking place: 46 percent support cooperation on a case-by-case basis, 10 percent support it in principle – combined, that makes up a majority. 41 percent oppose any form of cooperation.
Investigation facility
Population: Eligible voters in Germany
Collection method: Random-based online and telephone surveys (60 percent of them by landline, 40 percent by cell phone)
Survey period: November 3 to 5, 2025
Number of cases: 1,300 respondents (775 telephone interviews and 525 online interviews)
Weight: based on sociodemographic characteristics and memory of voting behavior
Fluctuation range: 2 percentage points for a share value of 10 percent, 3 percentage points for a share value of 50 percent
Implementing agency: infrared dimap
Results were rounded to whole percentages to avoid false expectations of precision. For all representative surveys, fluctuation ranges must be taken into account. In a survey of 1,000 respondents, that number amounts to about three percentage points for major parties and about one point for minor parties. In addition, rounding errors are also significant for small parties. For this reason, no party featured below three percent in Sunday’s question.
Concern and fear are especially visible among AfD voters
Only one group decides whether the AfD will become stronger or weaker: those who voted for it or mentioned it in surveys. Therefore, it is important to take a closer look at this group. To do this, data from the last few months is reanalyzed.
The main conclusion: What most clearly differentiates this group of voters from other groups of voters is not their political positions on certain issues. There are worries and fears. In short: Those who voted for the AfD are more afraid of current developments and more worried about the future of themselves and their families.
These concerns also apply to welfare and security. 94 percent feel concerned about our country’s economic position in the world, 75 percent feel that their security in old age is uncertain – compared with 62 and 42 percent for other groups. Concerns about facing an economic downturn have determined East Germany’s three elections in September 2024.
At the same time, people who would vote for the AfD feel more insecure and threatened. 79 percent of AfD supporters feel this insecurity in public spaces, compared to only 39 percent of other AfD supporters. The same thing also happens when it comes to concerns regarding social stability and the foreign policy situation.
Exaggerations and distortions do not deter AfD supporters
For its supporters, the AfD is the only party that formulates these concerns and fears, and has been doing so for a long time. The fact that they sometimes exaggerate, twist and distort the facts does not discourage many people. What is clearly more important is that their fears are expressed clearly.
He’s been working for years ARD GermanyTrend in the survey with two clearly visible formulations. The AfD “understands better than other parties that many people no longer feel safe,” confirmed half of all respondents (52 percent) and almost all AfD supporters (97 percent).
Likewise with the sentence: “I think it’s good that the AfD is more willing to limit the entry of foreigners and refugees than other parties.” 47 percent of everyone and 97 percent of supporters agreed.
AfD is not responsible
Many top EU and SPD leaders have understood this and are starting to identify their grievances more clearly. But unlike the AfD, they are responsible. They are expected to not only identify problems, but also solve them.
From the perspective of AfD supporters, the sharp decline in the number of refugees and asylum seekers is not enough. If, at the same time, integration in everyday life is not progressing and you feel threatened in some places, the fear for your own safety remains.
But most importantly, the federal government has not found a way to address concerns about an economic downturn. This is still an important thing for the AfD voter group.
Currently, 27 percent of those surveyed trust the European Union to solve their country’s most important tasks, and only 10 percent trust the SPD. This is a loss of competence for both of them by five points compared to February. Only when this competency curve reverses will AfD voters return.
