This is how the DFB team can qualify

The DFB team entered the final qualifying round as leaders of Group A with a nine-point lead over Slovakia and Northern Ireland, who have the same points (6 points).

In the games in Luxembourg (0 points) on Friday (20.45/RTL) and against Slovakia on November 17 (20.45/ZDF) in Leipzig, participation in the 2026 World Cup should be made clear.

If the DFB team wins in Luxembourg and against Slovakia, they will definitely qualify for the World Cup. But it can also be more complicated. There are six other variants of how Germany could also finish in first place with four, three, two, or even just one point from their last two matches.

However, the results of parallel matches between Slovakia and Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland against Luxembourg are also relevant for this constellation.

In the event of a draw, the goal difference and not the direct comparison is relevant.

Germany could also qualify in second or third place. Then the DFB team must advance to the playoffs. Here 16 teams play for the remaining four European tickets.

Apart from the twelve group runners-up, here are the four best ranked group winners in the 2024/25 Nations League who have not yet qualified for the World Cup or playoffs as the first or second group.

Four draw pots will be formed, each containing four teams. The twelve group runners-up will be distributed to pots 1 to 3 according to their position in the world ranking. Four teams participated through the Nations League ranking from pot 4.

Pots 1 and 2 are considered superior. This means that they enjoy home advantage in the semifinals. The team from pot 1 is always drawn with the team from pot 4 for the semifinal round. The teams from pots 2 and 3 then advance to the other semifinal in each lane.

As second in the group, Germany will be one of the four best teams in the playoff draw on November 20 and could play the first of two knockout games at home at the end of March 2026.

Germany secured the right to take part in the playoffs as third place in the group by winning the group in the Nations League. If the DFB team qualify for the World Cup this way, they will only take the fourth pot in the December 5 draw.

Because of the world ranking. This is the criteria for the seed list in the group draw. After many ups and downs, it now seems certain: If Germany wins both games, their pursuers Croatia and Morocco will no longer be able to overtake Germany in 10th place.

Because Italy is in danger of missing out on direct qualification, the DFB team, which is ranked tenth, will be one of the nine best-placed teams and of course qualify for the World Cup.

Then you’ll be in the best draw pot, which also includes three hosts the US, Mexico and Canada. The DFB team will be spared major World Cup challenges like Spain or Argentina in the group stages – as will Mexico in Group A with its poor logistics and extreme climate.

The World Cup group draw will take place in Washington on December 5 (6pm/CET). After that, national coach Julian Nagelsmann not only knows the three group opponents, but also the venue and kick-off time which is important for tournament logistics.