Russia is in phase 0 of a possible attack in the Baltics

“Phase 0”

Is Russia preparing an attack on the Baltic states?

Russia leveled serious accusations against the Baltic countries. American ISW ​​sees similarities to the Ukrainian war.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) sees signs of preparations for a military conflict between Russia and the Baltic states. In an analysis, scientists at the institute assumed that Russia had entered “Phase 0”. But a direct attack will not happen in the near future.

A military attack on the Baltic states – unlike an invasion of Ukraine – would be a direct attack on NATO. Experts such as GIS, a global risk assessment company, have long seen the possibility of a Russian invasion. “Recent intelligence indicates that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO, even as the war in Ukraine remains ongoing,” the company said in its assessment in July.

In “Phase 0” the steps taken aim to prevent conflict or prepare for conflict by building networks and disinformation campaigns. According to ISW, there are similarities between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent statements and Russia’s disinformation campaign prior to the attack on Ukraine.

On November 11, in an interview with Russian media journalists, Lavrov repeatedly used phrases that had been spread by the Russian side through pro-Kremlin propaganda channels on Telegram and social media. The minister accused Baltic states such as Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia of being “anti-Russian”, discriminating against the Russian-speaking population and ignoring agreements with Russia. He did not say which agreement he was referring to. He called the Baltic states “puppets of England” and argued that they belonged not to Europe but to Russia.

Lavrov also described the Baltic states as a threat to Russia and claimed that “some figures” in the European Union were “inciting” the Baltic states by stating that the Kaliningrad region could be “levelled to the ground”. “The Kremlin has used similar information against the Baltic states before, but it is noteworthy that Lavrov presented it all in one statement,” ISW said.

The accusations are similar to those Russia used against Ukraine in its attack on Crimea in 2014 and invasion in 2022. Russia has repeatedly falsely accused Ukraine of being ruled by a Nazi regime. The Kremlin has also stated several times that it wants to “liberate” the Donbass region. The reason given was that the Russian-speaking population was being persecuted. Russia also accused Ukraine of wanting to become a stepping stone for NATO. At that time, Ukraine was not in accession negotiations with NATO.

“Lavrov’s statement on November 11 is a continuation of the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to create an information situation for a possible future attack against one or all of the Baltic states. Therefore, the statement is part of Russia’s ongoing Phase Zero operations in preparation for a possible future war between NATO and Russia,” the ISW assessment said. However, this is limited by the fact that there are currently no signs of an imminent attack and that phase 0 operations could take several years.