The last thing a political leader mired in unpopularity, on the verge of breaking his greatest campaign promise and without domestic support needs, is to further weaken his already vulnerable position and strengthen that of the person seen as a potential successor. That’s exactly what British Labor Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s praetorian guard achieved in a clumsy maneuver that sought to quell a perceived assault on his authority and succeeded only in undermining it. Self-sabotage has further eroded Starmer’s battered leadership, with approval ratings at historic lows. To top it off, the president had to apologize to his health secretary, Wes Streeting, for the Cainite intrigues, while maintaining that he had not authorized any public disapproval against Streeting.
The crisis began – as usual in the UK’s febrile political climate – with anonymous sources willing to tell a story: Starmer was willing to fight if his colleagues tried to depose him. From the circle of Before The message spread that he would fight. And he issued a warning against the alleged ambitions of Minister Streeting, one of the Labor Party’s rising names, who has never hidden his aspirations to lead the party in the future.
The problem is that, beyond the discontent that has been evident in the party for months, there has been no sign of immediate revolt, nor of machinations on Streeting’s part. The Health Minister’s deft reaction after being accused of promoting the attack boosted his profile and at the same time increased Starmer’s fragility, just 16 months after winning the election.
This Thursday, during a visit to Wales, the Prime Minister tried to regain the initiative, assuring that, after speaking to his team, they had assured him that the finger-pointing at Streeting did not come from Number 10. “But I have made it clear that I find it absolutely unacceptable,” he said.
Streeting, as well as other senior government figures, such as Environment chief and former Labor leader Ed Miliband, have called for the sacking of the person responsible for the message that ended up opening the veil of thunder.
At the epicenter of the earthquake is the person who, in practice, acts as Starmer’s right-hand man, Morgan McSweeney, current Downing Street chief of staff. He is credited with the meticulous planning of the campaign that led to the resounding election victory in the general election in July last year, and his fate is intrinsically linked to that of Starmer. This Thursday, the Before he reaffirmed his faith in McSweeney.
The climate of apprehension reflects the panic that dominates Downing Street, just over 16 months after the landslide victory that brought the left back to power in the United Kingdom, after 15 years in opposition. The initial euphoria soon gave way to disappointment due to a series of controversial measures that weighed down the Government’s popularity, such as the controversial withdrawal of heating aid for pensioners, which was later partially revoked; the lack of progress on welfare reform or the perception of chaos in Number 10.
In addition to the dissatisfaction of citizens, unanimously confirmed by the polls, and by the Labor parliamentary group itself, which denounces an almost total absence of interaction on Starmer’s part, there is nervousness about the potential impact of the budgets that will be presented on November 26, the second of the current Executive.
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves set the stage for the controversial breaking of the election pledge that Labor had repeatedly guaranteed before and after the general election: that of not increasing personal income tax, nor the equivalent of workers’ national insurance contributions, nor VAT. In less than two weeks, Reeves is expected to increase the income tax burden, a decision that could shatter Labour’s political and economic credibility.
Unease over the consequences of the general accounts has triggered agitation among the government benches, a climate of unease that would end up becoming fertile ground for fears over Starmer’s continuity. According to the theory circulating in the prime minister’s circle this week, the budgets could act as a catalyst for an assault on the leadership, although Labor MPs later denied there were any moves to bring about an eviction from Number 10 before Christmas.
In modern times, regicide has been the heritage of conservatives, who have never hesitated to get rid of a leader considered a burden. Labor, on the other hand, has never pulled off a similar maneuver against any prime minister, despite the domestic unpopularity of leaders such as Tony Blair or Gordon Brown, in their latest attempts to come to power.
The challenge to Corbyn
Recently, only Jeremy Corbyn has faced a direct challenge from his ranks, in 2016, after the referendum that decreed the exit from the European Union, but he emerged significantly strengthened and ran as the leader in two general elections (in 2017 and 2019).
According to party rules, any candidate for office requires the support of 20% of the parliamentary group, currently made up of 81 deputies. The process could last up to three months as voting from militants to unions would take place, a potentially damaging period that could trigger mistrust in markets, precipitate chaotic sentiment similar to that experienced with the torieswith three prime ministers in two years, and dangerously undermine the credibility of the Labor Party.
The debate, however, is already open. The date marked in red for Starmer’s possible deadline is May 7. Local by-elections will be held that day in much of England and elections in Wales, where Labor has been in power since the creation of Parliament and Home Rule in 1999, and in Scotland. The polls unanimously predict a debacle for the formation, with the deprivation of thousands of municipal seats, the loss of the Welsh executive and the risk of being the third force in Scotland, behind the nationalists of the Scottish National Party (SNP, in its acronym in English) and Reform, the party of ultra Nigel Farage.
This week’s confusion is due to the calendar, as in the UK the consensus points to May as the real litmus test for Starmer. The preventive strategy aimed at emptying every succession maneuver of content led to a crisis created by the prime minister’s own entourage, an own goal that exacerbated his vulnerability and triggered further frustration within his ranks. The attempt to dissuade the internal movements has revealed an agitated state of paranoia that leaves Starmer deeply damaged, who, awaiting a perhaps lethal budget, continues without showing that he has a plan to restore voter confidence, galvanize his own and aspire to re-election, scheduled for 2029.
