The moment of truth seems ever closer. Donald Trump already knows “more or less” – in his words – the objectives in Venezuela of the gigantic American military deployment in the Caribbean, after a week of multiple consultations, as he declared on Friday on board the Air Force One. Meanwhile, Latin America – and the rest of the world – is holding its breath over a decision that could trigger a major geopolitical earthquake in a continent more polarized than ever.
It is not yet clear what Trump intends in the area. Representatives of his administration, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, insist that the military campaign – which in two and a half months has attacked twenty suspected drug trafficking vessels, killing at least 80 people in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific – is a mere counter-drug operation. But while he is amassing naval power off the coast of Venezuela, unprecedented in the area for decades, the president himself has spoken in public of a “phase two” of the operation that would include targets on land.
The mystery is what this new phase means: whether it will have a limited scope against the interests of drug trafficking groups or whether it will be – as the Venezuelan president himself, Nicolás Maduro, denounces, and many in Washington believe – a clear attempt to remove him from power. The US administration accuses the regime and Maduro himself of supporting their survival with the proceeds of drug trafficking and, like other governments in the world, do not consider him the legitimate leader of the country.
“One hundred percent” the operation is about regime change, “and anyone who thinks otherwise is very political,” says Daniel Elkins, CEO of the American Special Operations Association.
Warmongering escalation
In a rhetorical and warmongering escalation, in which the United States has positioned the largest and most modern aircraft carrier in the world in the area, the Gerard Fordand Venezuela has mobilized 200,000 soldiers to face a hypothetical invasion, Trump and Maduro seem condemned to a personal duel in which whoever blinks first will lose.
“The United States says these are narcotics. That’s the official position. So we could announce in February that drug shipments are down and that, therefore, we’ve won. But that’s false,” Trump’s former special envoy for Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, argued this week in a speech to think tank Atlantic Council. “If Nicolás Maduro is still in office at the end of all this, he will have won. He just has to survive. And I hope (Trump) recognizes that it’s too late to back down. Either Trump wins or Maduro wins. That fight is already underway.” It would be the second time that the Venezuelan could claim victory against Trump: the Republican had already attempted the Chavista march in 2019 with his support for Juan Guaidó, an experience that, although reluctant to forget the humiliations, continues to be very imprinted in his mind.
Events worsened with the arrival in the area of Gerard ford – which has already played a fundamental role in the US attack against nuclear targets in Iran last June – to join, together with its combat group, the flotilla of a dozen ships that the United States has already deployed since August in the international waters of the Caribbean, bordering the territorial waters of Venezuela. They are 20% of the US naval force mobilized in the world: 15,000 soldiers, F-35 fighter planes (the most modern), helicopters and long-range missiles, including Tomahawk that Ukraine so desires and that Trump has denied it because he needs it too.
Signs
The arrival of Gerard ford It was the first sign that some kind of movement might be imminent. The flagship of the US Navy is not mobilized to remain idle for a long time in one place, or to carry out simple surveillance tasks – the initial argument provided by the Pentagon to justify its transfer from the Middle East. Its deployment costs up to $8.4 million (7.2 million euros) per day, and its deterrent power is needed in many other hot spots on the planet where the United States has interests. “The Navy can’t stay there forever,” Abrams emphasizes.
The second sign occurred on Thursday. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on social networks the start of an important operation, Southern Spear (Southern Spear), to “eliminate narco-terrorists”.
Trump did not make an immediate decision. He had – and must – evaluate what he does very carefully. The president who presents himself to the world as a great peacemaker and who bluntly claims the Nobel Peace Prize needs, on the one hand, a legal justification for his intervention. On the other hand, he worries about the possibility of embarrassing failure, or exposing American troops to great risk. After all, he promised during the campaign – and his voter base demanded it – that under his command the United States would no longer interfere in any of what he described as “stupid wars.”
Citizen refusal
Citizens reject the idea of intervention. According to a poll released Friday by Reuters/Ipsos, 51% of Americans reject deadly attacks on drug traffickers, compared to 29% who approve. 35% condemn the use of military force in Venezuela without authorization from that country’s authorities, while 31% favor forcing Maduro’s departure through non-military means. Only 21% support a coup against the Chavista leader.
The options presented to Trump for striking targets inside Venezuela are varied. They could take the form of direct attacks by ships or resort to surgical missions by special operations groups. Attack the interests of drug trafficking cartels or pursue military objectives. Or even Maduro’s inner circle.
The Caribbean deployment is not the only U.S. military movement in the area. The Pentagon has strengthened its troops at bases in Puerto Rico. Adding to the pressure of attacks against suspected drug ships are training flights of B-52 and B-1 bombers near the Venezuelan coast and Trump’s authorization for the CIA to carry out covert actions inside Venezuela.
The Pentagon has also deployed ground forces in Panama, the country he invaded in 1989 to overthrow Manuel Noriega’s regime and which Trump had threatened before taking office with an intervention to regain control of a key canal, since it connects the Pacific to the Atlantic. And he announces powerful maneuvers in Trinidad and Tobago, including near the Venezuelan coast.
“This is obviously a pressure campaign,” says retired general Laura Richardson, who until a year ago was head of the Southern Command, responsible for US military operations in Latin America.
A campaign that, according to the American government, is planned for the long term. And that is part of a shift in foreign and defense policy aimed at reducing its focus on Europe and Asia and focusing, a century and a half after the Monroe Doctrinealways on the American continent.
The American Neighborhood
“The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood and we will protect it,” Hegseth wrote in his announcement of Operation Southern Spear. His department is preparing the publication of a new National Security Strategy – a catalog of priorities that each Administration prepares upon its arrival – which places the emphasis on Latin America and the protection of the national territory.
Already in the months preceding his inauguration in January, Trump had expressed his interest in the continent, threatening Panama with intervention to regain control of the Canal and asking the United States to take control of Greenland.
The Republican follows events in Latin America with interest and has spoken enthusiastically about changes in the leadership of countries in the region that have brought, and could continue to bring, governments aligned with Trumpism. “Marco tells me that more and more countries in the region are on our side,” he praised at a cabinet session in August. And he does not hesitate to support them openly, as happened when, during Javier Milei’s visit to the White House in October, he made aid to Argentina conditional on the president’s victory in the elections of 26.
In the other direction, the operation against drug traffickers has strained US relations with Colombia and its president, Gustavo Petro, whom Trump has called a “thug” and a “drug trafficker,” and against whom he has imposed economic sanctions. In turn, the Colombian president described the attacks against the boats as “extrajudicial executions”, a term also used by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. For this reason, Bogota announced this week the suspension of American intelligence collaboration, following the example of the United Kingdom – perhaps Washington’s greatest historical ally – which has also partially canceled this type of cooperation with the world’s leading power.
The Trump administration makes no secret of its desire for a replacement in that country. “Thank God, next year there will be elections in Colombia. I suppose that the Colombian people, with their great wisdom, will reject this path that leads to misery and hatred, and will take a new direction for the good of this great people”, declared the number two of the State Department, Christopher Landau, on Monday in Washington, in a demonstration of homage to the Cuban dissident José Daniel Ferrer.
According to Elkins, “we must keep in mind that Trump is not a second-term president, but a third,” because between 2021 and 2025 he did not stop considering what measures he would take. “What we’re seeing is a very sophisticated, very calculated, very coordinated effort to secure dominance in the (Western) hemisphere,” the expert says.
