In the last two years Jannick Sinner only lost 12 matches, evenly distributed between 2024 and 2025. Well, 7 of them were losses against Carlos Alcaraz. It contains the entire meaning of the final match scheduled in Turin, the last round of 2025 ATP Finals. Against any other opponent, Sinner would clearly be considered the favorite. Against Alcaraz, he had to step back forecast And precedent. The reason is that South Tyrol has a record number, in particular cement indoors and even more specifically on Atp Finalswhere he seems invincible. But he faced the only opponent he had so far been able to face scratch certainty.
Turin is in the final of his dreams, his best. That number 1 oppose number 2 in the world, those who have worked for two years they divide evenly all tournaments Slam. Alcaraz against Sinner was a tremendous generator of universal attention: the entire sports world took noticeInalpi Arena. Their current competition is motor tennis. They played against al Roland GarroA Wimbledongarlic US Open. Only Alcaraz missed an appointment in Australia. And then on to Rome yes Cincinnatialthough there was a truncated finale due to Sinner’s withdrawal. Now the ATP Finals, where very big gap between them and everyone else, even though they are in the Top 10.
Sinner’s number
Analyzing a match of this magnitude becomes more difficult every time. However, the fundamental question today may be the following: will it Impressive statistics by Sinner on cement indoors or Alcaraz’s talent inbecome entangled big rival? The numbers say this, as expected. Sinners come from 9 wins sequentially in the ATP Finals without dropping a set, he has an overall record of 14 wins and 2 losses. In this edition he has not conceded a single break in 39 innings. Alone Djokovic In 2018 he won the tournament without ever dropping serve. Thus, the sinner comes to third final sequentially in the ATP Finals: the only ones like him are Djokovic, Federer, Becker, Lendl, McEnroe and Nastase.
Zooming out from Turin, Sinner has an open lane 30 wins in a row in cement indoors: only Lendl (32), Federer (33), Djokovic (35) and McEnroe (47) have recorded better records than this in history. The South Tyrolean coach himself admitted as much in a press conference: “I feel modest in the room very comfortable. I also think it might suit my game better because I’m a pretty good hitter plate and have rhythm it gives me confidence. And you don’t have to control for wind, sun or other external factors.” Not that the Sinner is in a bad situation on any other surface: in this case 2025 where he missed three months, he got a score 57 wins and 6 losses. Has anyone done better? In percentage Nobody. In absolute terms, Alcaraz recorded 71 wins and 8 losses.
Alcaraz Puzzle
But the problem is how the Spaniard plays against Sinner. THAT precedentoverall, they act 10 to 5 for Alcaraz. Which he won 7 of the last 8 challenges against South Tyrol. In other words: if we look at the last two years, only a Wimbledonin a historic win on July 13, Sinner completely floored his rival. He also came close to winning it Roland Garroin a very even match. Apart from that, Alcaraz always wins, no matter what very tight match all decided in the fateful set. Except latest two.
Here, you need two I differentiate in an analysis of precedent, it is very unequal in favor of Spain. On the one hand, the Sinner has almost always had the ability to come along in recent seasons at the bottom of the tournament. Meanwhile, Alcaraz only had time to play in the final when he was in the final form optimalotherwise, he often stumbled before. For this reason, to a large extent challenge they were played on terrain favorable to Alcaraz. Ingrassfor example, the Sinners have won twice out of two. On a fast note, like We Open, Miami or Beijingthe match was a draw (2-2). In contrast, the Spaniard has won almost all of them suitable on Earth (except Umag) and those on the slowest concrete on the circuit, a India well.
THAT‘final previously (Cincinnati may not be considered given the Sinner’s retirement) to US Openin the final, however, it carries significant weight: in theory Alcaraz and Sinner appear equal, in terms of form and chances of victory. And the Spaniard won September 4even enough easily. It is this victory that has so far allowed Alcaraz to be the best number 1 from the rankings (despite Sinner’s three-month hiatus). And that put him in position superiority compared to the Sinner. In cement indoorsprecisely because of the discussion above, but there is no current precedent between the two. The only one from the Masters 1000 Paris 2021: it was the first ATP match between the two future tennis kings. Alcaraz won, 7-6 7-5. Meanwhile, both of them have come a long way.
