When the Paris Climate Agreement was signed ten years ago, most countries in the world committed to implementing policies to limit the increase in global average temperatures as much as possible, for example by reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. These countries set a temperature rise limit of 1.5°C (compared to the pre-industrial period) by the end of the century, but this threshold has temporarily been exceeded and it now appears that the goal will not be achieved. This was a failure, but only partial: in the last decade there have been important advances partly attributable to the treaty itself.
This warning is, at least symbolically, at the heart of the climate conference (COP30) which begins on Monday 10 November in Belém, Brazil. Just as ten years ago, representatives from nearly every country in the world are working to define and revise many climate policies. Practically everyone is there, except the United States which has not sent any high-level representatives and, at the behest of President Donald Trump with his climate denial, will leave the Paris Agreement at the beginning of next year and will not honor the commitments made in recent years to reduce emissions and consumption of fossil fuels (in 2017 he did the same).
In 2015, the signing of the agreement, which came into force the following year, was made possible by an international situation that was certainly calmer than the current situation, with reduced tensions between some of the most powerful countries such as the United States, Russia and China. In this context, the sense of urgency of the climate crisis is manifested in an important agreement, but it remains mediated between countries with very different interests.
In addition to the 1.5 °C limit, it was decided that each country would independently commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, envisioning that rich countries would do their homework more quickly, given the greater availability of resources, and that they would help poor countries to continue their development sustainably. However, voluntary climate plans (“Nationally Determined Contributions”, NDCs) are not being adhered to or are being adopted very slowly, and this is one of the issues being addressed at COP30. In addition, rich countries have not spent the funds they promised to help poorer countries, which in just a few years have faced increasingly extreme and frequent weather conditions.
When this treaty was approved, no one thought that the Paris Agreement could be a game-changer, especially since it came after a century and a half of humanity having burned enormous amounts of fossil fuels, and is still doing so. Even if there is a significant reduction in emissions, it will still take a long time to see results. Therefore, the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement coincides with the hottest ten-year period on record. The year 2024, in particular, is the hottest year for which we have reliable data and according to some measurements, this year coincides with a temporary exceedance of the 1.5 °C threshold well before the end of the century.
In 2015, the world was on track to see global average temperatures rise by 3.8°C by the end of the century, according to forecast models at the time. Ten years later, the current trajectory shows an increase of 2.5–2.9°C compared to the pre-industrial global average temperature. The results point to the maintenance of commitments made ten years ago and sharper action in the coming decades could reduce those values. The problem is that currently the main producers of greenhouse gases – such as China, the United States, the European Union and India – have not kept their promises, and continue to emit more greenhouse gases than they say.
The failure of these promises also relates to the allocation of funds to help the poorest countries organize themselves and adapt to climate change. With great difficulty, the 100 billion fund was only reached in 2022 and we are still far from the 300 billion dollars that should have been allocated in 2035. This will be discussed in Belém today, also considering that the stated expenditure is still insufficient and it is not clear how the additional funds approved last year of 1,300 billion will be financed.
Greenhouse gas production has continued to increase over the last ten years, but on the other hand the growth has become much slower. This progress has been made possible in part thanks to the increasing use of energy sources such as solar and wind to generate electricity. Solar power, in particular, is growing much faster than expected, according to some analyzes exponentially. In 2015, global installed power was around 200 gigawatts, while in 2024, solar panels installed will be 600 gigawatts.
The success of solar power plants is largely due to the reduced production and management costs of photovoltaic panels, which become more efficient and long-lasting. The main panel manufacturer is China and its production levels are so high that it has drastically reduced prices, making the panels accessible even in less economically developed countries. The cost of producing electricity from solar and wind power is now much lower than other fossil fuel production methods.
The energy transition also affects transport and especially road transport. Over the past decade, sales of electric vehicles have increased by 3,300 percent, and by 2024, about one in five cars sold will be electric or hybrid. Partial data for 2025 shows a slight decline in sales, but overall the shift to electric vehicles is now considered inevitable and will have a major impact on the entire production sector. Once again, China is ahead of some of the largest electric vehicle manufacturers, while legacy automotive companies in Europe and the United States are having great difficulty managing the transition of their entire production systems.
Despite important advances in renewable energy and the electrification of transportation, the world still consumes excessive amounts of fossil fuels. The most worrying fact for many analysts concerns the reorganization of the natural gas market. With reduced Russian gas supplies following the war in Ukraine, there is a hypothesis of an accelerated energy transition towards more environmentally friendly sources, to be used as a substitute for gas. Things went differently, especially after massive investments by the United States that started about ten years ago and made them now the main exporter of liquefied natural gas, followed by Australia, Qatar, and then Russia.
Natural gas management involves building infrastructure, storage and distribution systems, with investments that provide returns in the medium and long term. In other words, once the infrastructure is built, it must be utilized in order to generate profits and this will reduce the possibility of rapid abandonment of gas use.
However, in China, there has been an unprecedented increase in coal consumption for electricity production. In recent years, the Chinese government has commissioned many new power plants, which produce large amounts of carbon dioxide and other pollutants that linger in the atmosphere. This increase in consumption has exceeded expectations and offset the efforts of a number of other countries that have begun dismantling their last coal-fired power plants, such as the UK.
Therefore, after ten years, it is difficult to understand the Paris Agreement, especially considering the complexity of the climate problem and the approaches that have been implemented in this decade, without good coordination between the main producers of greenhouse gases. This agreement certainly has the benefit of setting the most important goals and to some extent influencing the activities of not only governments, but also many multinational companies throughout the world. Although many things have changed, it remains a reference point for measuring some of the successes and failures of policies in combating global warming and adapting to the inevitable impacts of climate change. One element comes up the most: slowness.
Reaction times compared to those shown by research, which has now produced a large amount of data and analysis that has a very high scientific consensus, are inadequate and this is what the working group will discuss at the climate conference in Brazil. Global warming is outstripping efforts to combat it, with increasingly visible impacts harming billions of people around the world.
