Reisner’s outlook on the future“In a company of 150 Ukrainians, 13 people are still ready to fight”
Moscow troops began their winter offensive with an attack on Zaporizhia. Special attack tactics and foggy weather would help the Russian advance, Colonel Reisner said. Ukraine is under great pressure – also because of the energy crisis.
ntv.de: More than 36,000 households in the Odessa region are without electricity after the Russian attack. Will Moscow finally bomb Ukraine, causing an energy crisis?
Markus Reisner: Yes. Russia has started a new strategic air campaign against Ukraine. In October, airstrikes caused around 60 percent of gas supplies to be cut off. About half can be repaired. In addition, there were attacks on thermal power plants and substations. Power is turned off for 12 to 16 hours every day. Power outages have occurred in several areas. The energy crisis could become very severe this winter.
Ukraine attempted to rebuild its energy infrastructure in the short time following the attacks. What options exist to protect infrastructure from such attacks?
There are several options. This is especially interesting in the context of the corruption scandal that occurred at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government. The scandal involved the embezzlement of funds that should have been used to protect critical infrastructure, for example by reinforcing transformer structures with concrete shells. Another problem: Stationary systems are easy to detect before an attack because they are stationary. Destruction can only be prevented through massive protection. There are several images showing how a concrete casing was built around the system and additional netting was installed to counter drones. But Russia has now reached a very great intensity in air warfare.
How did this come about?
According to Ukraine’s intelligence and intelligence services, more than 80,000 drones were produced in Russia this year alone. In addition, 1,500 ballistic missiles and thousands of cruise missiles have been deployed this year. And Russia often uses multiple cruise missiles or rockets on a single target at the same time. This means that if, in an attack of, say, 10 to 12 rockets, a total of 8 to 10 rockets are shot down by Ukrainian air defenses, then there will be some left over. Both attacks then destroy the system if it is not adequately protected.
Can we talk about the beginning of the Russian winter offensive?
However. Russia’s summer onslaught lasts longer because the Rasputiza mud season starts late. The Russians have reorganized their winter offensive. The focus is currently in the Zaporizhia region, south of Pokrovsk to the west. Russia attacks an important logistics center near Hulyaypole. This is the battleground that Ukraine is trying to advance to in 2023.
But now Russia has advanced there?
The front can be divided into northern, central and southern sections. Defenses from 2023 will still be in the south. By then Russia had dug in and Ukraine wanted to move forward. Russia is now advancing again into this region. South of Pokrovsk they have advanced up to 10 kilometers on a width of about 30 to 35 kilometers and have captured several towns. The Hulyaypole logistics center in the southern sector in Zaporizhzhia is threatened with capture. We saw something similar in Orichiv. This is a town to the west of Mala Tokmachka, where the Russian troops are already located.
Why is Russia currently achieving some success?
There are two circumstances that support it. The first was the way the Russians attacked, with surprise teams and small raids. The second thing is weather conditions. There is currently a lot of fog in autumn, which obscures the visibility of Ukrainian drone operators. The Russians took advantage of this by attacking with small forces to form bridgeheads or entry points to defensive positions. The Russians then added heavy equipment. Moscow forces also took advantage of Ukrainian troop ties in the Pokrovsk region to achieve success elsewhere.
Ukraine also wants to tie Russia down through fighting around Pokrovsk – to expand their defense lines. For which of the warring parties would it be more beneficial to tie up the enemy forces at Pokrovsk?
Ukraine is at a disadvantage because there is no equal distribution of power on both sides. There are up to ten Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier in a heavyweight region like Pokrovsk. In order to remain in action, Ukraine needs reserve troops. On a tactical level, use it immediately, i.e. directly in front. At an operational level, to get them several kilometers away. And third, at the strategic level, namely the forces they maintain in the interior and then deploy in heavyweight areas.
And Ukraine lacks personnel for all these reserves?
We saw this in Pokrovsk. The Russians have attempted to get into defensive positions north of the city. The effort was abandoned. But for this Ukraine had to use its strategic reserve, the so-called First Azov Corps, which is still in use today. So Ukraine is having a hard time mobilizing forces to fight Russia. The city of Pokrovsk could only be liberated through a massive counterattack. But we don’t have the strength for that. Ukraine is trying to at least keep pockets near the city open as much as possible and for as long as possible so that the Ukrainian army can continue to retreat. But Russia had more troops and could deploy them elsewhere, such as Zaporizhia, Kupyansk, or Seversk.
How many soldiers does Moscow have?
Russia sees the arrival of about 30,000 to 35,000 new troops per month, while Ukraine reports the arrival of about 17,000 of its own troops. But you can see the lack of Ukrainian soldiers at every level. Last week I spoke on the phone with a friend who was in a unit that had just deployed. He talked about how thin his company was. In his company of 150 Ukrainians, only 13 were still ready to fight.
What’s more important is that the remaining Ukrainians can withdraw from Pokrovsk, right?
Nearly ten days ago, Pokrovsk effectively fell. On the northern edge of the city there are several prefabricated buildings, a small part of which is still controlled by the Ukrainian army. But you have to treat it like a piece of mustard. When you squeeze it, at the end there is still so little left that you can barely get it out. But the canister was essentially empty and that meant for Pokrovsk, the city was in Russian hands. The Ukrainians remained there to defend areas north and northeast of Pokrovsk. To do this, they opened a small corridor to the eastern pocket of the city. Ukraine wants to get all its soldiers out of the cauldron. This was primarily the 38th Marine Brigade.
Besides Porkovsk, there are five other cauldrons where the battle is taking place. What’s it like there?
Starting from the north, we see focal points at Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. There the situation reached its peak. Under the cover of fog, the Russians advanced on the town of Novopavlivka. They tried something similar in Kostiantynivka and Siversk. Pressure on Ukraine is increasing.
Lea Verstl talks to Markus Reisner
