A ready-to-insurrection army and a fragmented opposition are capable of posing a serious challenge. But also America’s internal political reaction to the president promising not to carry out detrimental involvement abroad. This, according to experts quoted by CNN, could face US President Donald Trump if he orders an attack on Venezuela aims to overthrow Nicolas Maduro. No decision has been made, but CNN reported that Trump received briefings in recent days to evaluate options for military action in Venezuela. Meanwhile, according to experts and former officials quoted by the same broadcaster, if Maduro flees Venezuela or is killed in a targeted attack, the risk is that the military will take power or other similar strengthening of dictators. Apart from Maduro, there are actually other members of Venezuelan Chavismo who could expose this country to a harsher regime.
“Maduro said something like, ‘You want to get rid of me? Do you think things will get better?’ “This is something to consider because Maduro is a moderate in Chavismo and someone else could seize power replacing the opposition with military support,” said Juan Gonzalez, a researcher at the Georgetown Americas Institute and former Biden administration official who specializes in the area. Another possibility is that the army takes power. “If the military is still united, and I don’t think there’s any evidence to the contrary, then the military won’t collapse because Maduro will be kicked out,” said John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser during his first term. “They will follow their discipline, assert military control and repress anyone who takes to the streets,” he predicted.
Maduro, whose inner circle consists of rival civilians and military officials, is known for exercising tight control over his government and stabilizing rival factions. Without Maduro, these actions could tear the country apart, and potentially lead to civil war, experts say. “Like it or not, Maduro is the guarantor of balance,” said a Western diplomat who has spent years in Venezuela on condition of anonymity. “Everyone knows he’s been politically dead since last year’s election, but if he’s gone, there’s no one to maintain the status quo, so everyone supports him,” he explained.
The Trump administration may hope that the Venezuelan opposition will fill the power vacuum created by Maduro’s ousteras he has attempted to do by recognizing Juan Guaidò as Venezuela’s legitimate leader in 2019. Among others, Venezuela’s current opposition leader, 2024 presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, claims to have a 100-hour plan for a transfer of power. But experts believe that it will not succeed in either the short or long term without US support. “The idea that a member of the opposition can rule in the near future is impossible. There is no way to guarantee his security or his ability to govern without guarantees from the United States,” said Juan Gonzalez. “Everyone sees Maduro’s removal as the end, but in reality this is just the beginning of a long and tiring process,” he added.
This is because, experts explained to CNN, To keep one of Venezuela’s potential opposition leaders in power, the United States needs to provide assistance in rebuilding the military.or, the disbursement of Caracas government funds and training of the police force. The opposition, experts say, will face hostility from the Venezuelan army, pro-government paramilitary groups known as colectivos, the National Liberation Army, Colombian guerrilla groups currently seeking refuge in the country, and other active criminal groups. It is unclear how much support Trump is willing to give to opposition leaders seeking to oust Maduro from the presidency, but that support must be continuous, officials say, to avoid state failure.
However, such a large US military involvement risks shaking up the political coalition supporting Trump as president with a promise to keep the US out of foreign wars. “The American people did not elect Trump to drag the United States into protracted conflicts in Latin America,” a Republican congressman told CNN. However, for some, this may be a missed opportunity for Trump to give up on efforts to oust Maduro. “Trump has called Maduro a narcoterrorist and drug trafficker, and he has amassed a massive army. If he steps down now and Maduro stays, all talk of a ‘new Monroe Doctrine’ and the idea of sovereignty in our hemisphere will disappear,” said Elliott Abrams, a former senior State Department official in Trump’s first term.
