The real estate market is influenced by seasonality. After the weakest data of the summer, September usually marks a rebound and last year’s was spectacular: in the ninth month of the year, 63,794 home purchase and sale transactions were signed, the highest number in this period since records have existed in the last 18 years, according to data published this Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). This rebound allows us to recover the energy lost after the decline in August, which this month recorded the worst data since the pandemic, and to once again place the turnover above the 59,000 units shipped per month so far this year. In this way, an improvement of 33.7% in the monthly comparison and 3.8% in the annual evolution was obtained.
The behavior of last September has no equal in the entire statistical series collected by the INE. The 63,794 trades carried out are 2,322 more than those of the same period last year, which was already a great record, only surpassed by the 61,723 signed in 2007, and which since then had set a record that ended up collapsing. The latest operations in September also double those carried out ten years ago, in 2015, when they just exceeded 30,000.
José María Alfaro, president of the National Federation of Real Estate Associations (FAI), celebrates the rebound in sales and considers it “an example of the strength and resilience of the market”, even “in a context of high prices and limited supply”. According to him, this boom can be explained by the push towards new buildings and the scarcity of rental possibilities, which pushes many tenants to make a purchase. “Sales and purchases are increasing, but supply continues to be insufficient, especially in large urban centres, putting pressure on market prices,” he adds.
The INE data once again shows the predominance of used homes over new homes in the volume of transactions (78.3% and 21.67% respectively); and they note a slight improvement in the number of sheltered homes sold compared to those in August (+1,239). In fact, more VPOs were sold in July alone than in September (4,456 versus 4,388). “The data are growing again after a month of slight contraction and, even if it is true that the increase recorded is much more moderate than that recorded a year ago, they are still at historic levels”, analyzes Ferran Font, director of studies of the Pisos.com portal.
By territory, Andalusia leads the list of communities with the highest number of operations performed with 19,303, ahead of the Valencian Community (15,514), Catalonia (13,864) and Madrid (12,212). However, despite occupying the top positions, territories such as the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands and Madrid have moderated their figures. «This suggests a market with prices at the highest levels and where demand becomes skeptical and insolvent», says Alfaro, president of the FAI.
However, increases like those of Castilla-La Mancha – which went from 3,932 sales in August to 4,897 in September – reflect “the progressive migration of buyer demand towards less stressed peripheral areas with still acceptable prices”, underlines Alfaro. “Expectations of price increases will continue to stimulate the market and we will likely continue to be installed at a time of great activity in the sector,” adds Font.
Despite the good market performance in September, the positive trend of the real estate sector remains unchanged. The progressive increase in prices and the lack of new construction continue to strangle the market and call into question its sustainability. A dramatic circumstance that affects the entire country and which reached the Guarantor, who on Monday reported having received 822 complaints during 2024 regarding the current crisis in access to housing and invited public administrations to increase the public building stock by allocating it mainly to rentals.
Coordinated policies
This limitation of the increase in public securities – the construction of which represents just over 3% of the total – will not, according to experts, prevent the number of sales from maintaining its momentum in the final months of the year. “The data accumulated in a calendar year increases again and is increasingly approaching the figure of 710,000,” predicts Font.
In addition to the previous reasoning, another reason behind this behavior has to do, according to Alfaro, with the conversion of many rentals into sales. “If we want this dynamism to be sustainable, we need more available housing to stop the escalation of prices, as well as coordinated policies between the three levels of administration: national, regional and local,” he underlines.
