The game of truth begins in Belem. Four days before the official deadline, Brazil’s COP30 presidency voted to speed things up, by unveiling a draft compromise text, the so-called “Mutirão Global” (native word for a community gathered for a common task). This initiative, assessed “very ambitious” And “unbelievable start” compared to the customary Conference of the Parties (COP), aimed at forcing the 194 member states of the Paris Agreement and the European Union.
This is to show that climate multilateralism is indeed true ” life “ despite geopolitical and economic turmoil, as Kiribati representative Josephine Moote recalled. The method is maximum pressure. Negotiators are instructed to resolve a “important part” discussions before midweek, a strategy that, according to Rachel Kyte, Britain’s climate envoy, was proposed “a lot of pressure” to the delegates.
Lula returned to “bringing defeat to those who deny it”
President Lula is key to this acceleration. His return to Belém this Wednesday was not a simple protocol trip. Like François Hollande in 2015 or Boris Johnson in 2021, he again added political weight to the delegates at the final stage.
Lula invested huge political capital in this COP, the first of its kind to be held in the Amazon. Stated goal: “inflicting new defeats on those who deny” climate. His presence coincided with hopes – considered optimistic by some – of a first consensus being reached on Wednesday. The Brazilian diplomat leading the conference, André Correa do Lago, confirmed that the president would meet with the negotiating group. But this tight schedule could mean a protracted plenary session ” late “He reminded that consensus is the absolute rule in making any decisions.
Funding, the annual poison that sabotages South Korea
The most dangerous issue is climate finance. The Brazilian text suggests trebling funds from the richest countries to the poorest countries for their adaptation to climate change, with a timeline set at 2030 or 2035. This is a direct request from the countries of the South.
But this proposal runs counter to European realism. Europeans considered this adaptation a goal “completely unrealistic” personally. However, for Sudanese delegate Lina Yassin, without concrete financial decisions regarding adaptation, “Everything discussed here is only symbolic. We will go home and tomorrow nothing will change. » A similar sentiment was shared by Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists, who believes this “Lack of funding is poisoning this entire COP. No file can move forward without it.”
The gap is very big. Negotiators recognized a global need of $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from public and private sources. However, even if the goal of 300 billion dollars per year by 2035 set at COP29 is fully achieved, there will still be an annual deficit of around 1,000 billion dollars between estimated needs and committed public funds.
There “carbon tax” UE in the viewfinder
Another non-negotiable red line: the question of unilateral trade measures. The draft text in Brazil includes options referring to these measures, implicitly targeting the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that the European Union must put in place by January 2026.
The EU presents its CBAM (which will apply to steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizer, electricity and hydrogen) as the tool “virtuous” to encourage the entire world to decarbonize. China, India and other exporting countries have criticized this policy as a covert protectionist measure. Europe’s Climate Commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, warned that we should not get carried away “in artificial conversations about trading metrics” and hit it home “Carbon pricing is an action we must apply to as many people as possible, and as quickly as possible”. The EU also rejected it “reopen last year’s hard-won compromise on financing”.
80 countries demand commitment to fossil roadmap
The third point directly relates to the future of global energy: stop using fossil fuels. This text leaves all options open, thus triggering a fight for mutual concessions.
Nearly 80 countries – including Germany, Colombia, Kenya and a coalition of European and island nations – are demanding a decision that goes beyond principle “transition away from fossil fuels” adopted in Dubai by 2023. They demand a clear roadmap regarding the implementation of this commitment. In contrast, oil-producing countries have remained largely silent regarding Belem. To Tina Stege, envoy from the Marshall Islands, “The current references in the text are weak and presented as an option. These should be strengthened and adopted. »
Regarding overall climate ambition, the text also proposes that reports summarizing countries’ climate commitments should now be published annually, and no longer every five years, according to one option.
A starting point “big” under threat of obstruction
this project “Mutirão Global” East “mixed together” And “not very balanced”according to Wopke Hoekstra and Rachel Kyte, but this is assessed by Kaysie Brown from the E3G think tank as “important starting point” And “a credible package capable of delivering significant results for COP30”.
Negotiators are now at work “day and night” to avoid failure. Simon Stiell, UNFCCC Secretary General, urged delegates to address this “for the most difficult questions quickly” to avoid extending the summit beyond Friday. The warning is clear: “We absolutely cannot afford to waste time on delays or tactical obstacles. »
