Rome, 19 November (Adnkronos) – Ets and Ets2 change the rules: costs increase by around 50% for shipping and just under 10% for heavy road transport, but LNG and bio-LNG remain the most competitive solutions. The Bip Consulting study commissioned by Assogasliquidi-Federchimica evaluates long-term scenarios and their impact on the Total Cost of Ownership (Tco) of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS 1 and ETS 2) of various energy commodities. According to projections, the expected increase in ETS quota prices and the implementation of ETS2 will require significant additional costs: between 0.7 and 1.4 billion euros per year for the navy and 4-15 billion euros for heavy road transport in Italy in 2030.
In the shipping sector, ETS can increase TCO by up to +50%, with a potential double impact when combined with FuelEU Maritime. In this scenario, LNG and bioLNG emerge as the most competitive options compared to traditional fuels. Meanwhile, for heavy road transport, ETS2 specifies a TCO increase of less than 10%, which is enough to make biogenic solutions attractive. Finally, compared to off-grid industries, ETS2 can increase TCO by 30-40%, making LNG and bioLNG an economically profitable alternative.
“LNG and bioLNG assert themselves as strategic vectors for the energy transition – comments Matteo Cimenti, president of Assogasliquidi-Federchimica – capable of guaranteeing economic competitiveness and reducing emissions in the sectors that are most difficult to decarbonize, helping to reduce the burdensome impact of the ETS regulations for companies and consumers”.
The long-term scenario shows significant growth in the LNG market, driven by the naval sector where technological alternatives for decarbonization are limited. Current demand (around 200 ktons/year) could triple by 2030 and reach over 2,000 ktons/year by 2050, driven by the naval sector (over 1,200 ktons/year) and the road transport sector (over 750 ktons/year).
“These scenarios make it easier for us to choose the investments that companies take, but this can only be achieved if accompanied by several important policy steps – added Costantino Amadei, president of Assogasliquidi-Federchimica LNG Group – starting with the urgent revision of the European Regulation on CO₂ emissions from heavy vehicles, which recognizes the value of biofuels through the application of carbon correction factors. It is therefore important to introduce this into the provisions of the 2026 Budget today based on the discussion in the DPR is a minimum structural replacement contribution – three years and operational from the first month of 2026 – on the costs of purchasing LNG and bioLNG by road transport companies. The provisions contained in the 2026 APBN Bill regarding extraordinary operations starting in 2027 with resources of 590 million for vehicle fleet renewal are good, but in the implementation phase it is necessary that the distribution of these funds include important compensation for the purchase of vehicles powered by alternative fuels such as LNG and bioLNG.”
“The sustainability of incentives for biomethane/bioLNG production must also be guaranteed, even beyond the Pnrr, the possibility of maintaining incentives even when the product is used in international shipping, as well as providing an allocation of ETS auction proceeds to support the sectors that produce them to support the decarbonization process. bunkering. Only in this way will we be able to fully exploit the opportunities offered by LNG and bioLNG and build a more sustainable and competitive energy future.”
