Once upon a time, Italian football arrived at the World Cup without any problems, and if anything they regretted not winning in Galicia (yes, we are talking about the victory of Mundial 82) a group that looked easy but actually wasn’t, ending up in the jaws of Argentina and Brazil instead of the more convincing Belgium and Soviet Union. Now we look at the draw in Zurich, where the Azzurri will face the first hurdle (we really hope there will be another challenge in the final) towards the Americas World Cup. In general, there is a certain terror-tinged fear of what was once just a formality.
Scary place
The premise is a recent burn wound that has not healed at all. Italy has a national team that was knocked out by Sweden and North Macedonia from the last two World Cups, which conceded 4 goals to Israel and struggled to score two goals against Moldova. So the scale of difficulty of possible rivals is not easy to establish. Another caveat: the play-offs will be played in March 2026, when current values could change. This is true in Italy, but also in other countries.
The opponent is from the League C Nations League…
Let’s start from the semifinals. Three of the four possible rivals, Northern Ireland, Sweden and North Macedonia, (only Romania was absent) eliminated the Azzurri before the three World Cups we failed to take part in (in 1930, however, Italy did not participate by choice) but the past does not count here. They all have in common the fact that they have won the Nations League group, but in League C, to understand the level.
Sweden with a miserable game, but that’s something to avoid
In World Cup qualifying, Sweden was the team with the worst results in their group: two draws against Slovenia and then four defeats against Switzerland and Kosovo, a miserable quality of play. However, perhaps this is the thing that should be avoided the most. First of all, he had a new coach, the Englishman Graham Potter (a magician at Brighton who was cruelly expelled by Chelsea), and some quality elements, especially in attack: Isak (who at Liverpool had lost the record he showed at Newcastle), Gyokeres (who also did his part at Arsenal), Kulusevski, quite a constant at Tottenham. They haven’t won a match since June (in a friendly) and an official match since November 19, 2024, 6-0 against Azerbaijan. However, he is an opponent that most of the four should avoid. I don’t know, maybe his talent will awaken from hibernation.
Romania with some pitfalls
Another country to avoid is Romania. Despite the presence of a true teacher like Mircea Lucescu, who does not lack experience (80) on the bench, he was the last to give up: he won in Bosnia and finished second in the pocket, then he was put back together in the end also because the good Dragus got a red card as soon as he entered the field for almost decapitating Dzeko. Therefore, the Romanian troops moved to the fourth level. However, geniuses like Man, Mihaila and Hagi Jr should not be underestimated.
Northern Ireland and North Macedonia, it can be done
Northern Ireland are more approachable: they won two games against Luxembourg and beat Slovakia at home. In the recent palmares, there was also an undeserved defeat suffered at home against Germany. The good thing is that the match will still be played in Italy, a very important detail. O’Neill’s team at Windsor Park played at breakneck speed, according to ancient tradition. Away from home he changed colors, often placing football keys like old times.
On the other hand, bad timing for North Macedonia who conceded just 7 goals to Wales in a match where they had to maintain a draw to stay in second place. However, the Balkans forced two draws against Belgium and this gave them credibility.
What if Italy advances to the final? Here are the teams to avoid in order
Now let’s rank the teams to avoid in a possible final, keeping in mind that the field factor will be very important here (this will also be determined in Zurich).
First of all, that Poland by Lewandowski. Those who should have been the favorites then slipped to the second caste due to Denmark’s defeat in Scotland. Very dangerous, also for environmental reasons, if used outside the home.
Ireland, not because of its simple technical value, but because of the indescribable enthusiasm that accompanies it. Nearly eliminated with two games remaining, they beat Portugal 2-0 and then got the only possible result, victory, in Hungary by scoring the winning goal through Parrott (hat-trick, new national hero) in the 96th minute.
There Bosnia they were at risk of elimination (they lost to Romania), but they also came close to elimination in Austria, where they only achieved at the end with a mediocre goal.
There Slovakiawho beat Germany at home before being hammered 6-0 in the last game by Germany themselves: they have an Italian coach, Calzona, who knows us well and a national team that knocked us out in 2010 in the group in South Africa.
Albania they won in Serbia 1-0 but at home they scored 0-0. He also had difficulty winning in Andorra (always 1-0).
Czech Republic it’s a common but not impossible group (second behind Croatia and ahead of the Faroe Islands). However, they conceded 5 goals against Croatia and lost away to the Faroe Islands. Notable player, former Roma player Schick (4 goals in qualifying).
Wales he bounced back with 7 goals against Macedonia. Dangerous especially when faced in Cardiff, he lost a lot in away games.
That Kosovo performed very well in qualifying, but beat disappointing Slovenia and Sweden. The coach was Franco Foda, former coach of Sturm Graz and former coach of Austria, the German son of an Italian emigrant originally from Vittorio Veneto.
The best possible ending for Italy
Best prediction: home final for the winner of the Wales-Kosovo tie.
The worst possible ending for Italy
Worst prediction: away final against winner of Poland-Ireland.
