Mexico’s economy lost momentum during the third quarter of 2025. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.3% from July to September, compared to the previous quarter. The drop is in line with the preliminary forecasts released a few weeks ago by Inegi. Although agricultural and service activities showed positive behavior, Mexico’s economic performance was held back by weakness in the industrial sector, which includes manufacturing, mining and construction. This sector recorded a decline of 1.5% in the period, unchanged compared to what was initially calculated. The cumulative decline in secondary activity is the deepest since 2020.
The mining sector recorded a contraction of 8.45% over the year, construction reported a decline of 2.7%, while the manufacturing sector recorded almost zero growth of 0.01%. In contrast, primary activities, which include agriculture, fishing and livestock, grew by 3.5% in the third quarter of the year. This increase was slightly higher than the preliminary figure of 3.2%. Even in the case of services, better data was recorded than expected, growing by 0.2%. The slowdown in public investment and the decline in consumption have been some of the signs of weakness in the Mexican economy this year.
Despite the quarterly decline in GDP, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum assured that the country has a solid economy. The president acknowledged that the country did not grow much in 2025, but indicated that this was due to many external factors, such as tariffs imposed on Mexican imports from the United States. “Mexico’s economy is strong. Economists normally measure in terms of growth, GDP has become the fundamental indicator for measuring economies, who measures that 13.5 million Mexicans have emerged from poverty? I am very optimistic about how the year will end and how we will go in 2026, there is confidence,” he declared.
The confirmation of the decline in GDP from July to September reflects the dark clouds hanging over Latin America’s second largest economy. Mexico’s performance has slowed due to trade uncertainty due to tariff policy against the United States and domestic mistrust due to recent justice system reforms.
Compared to the third quarter of 2024, Mexico’s GDP decreased by 0.1%. The primary sector grew by 3.5%, year-on-year, while tertiary activities increased by 0.2%. With these data, market analysts indicate economic growth of less than 1% this year. In line with this rise, last September the Ministry of Finance reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2025, placing it in a range between 0.5% and 1.5%.
