He manages the investments of Spain’s fourth largest fund manager, with assets exceeding 28.6 billion euros – only behind that of the country’s three largest banks – of which almost three quarters correspond to conservative funds. Beatriz Catalán, investment director at Ibercaja Gestión, is well aware of the extremely conservative profile of clients and that the trend in recent years where higher interest rates allowed real returns with very little management has run its course. The prospects for fixed income are now more difficult and involve, according to Catalán, the opening of the range between the different options offered by this asset or the inevitable leap into the stock market if greater profitability is desired.
Ask. How do you see the current stock market moment? Is there too much euphoria?
Answer. We need to distinguish the underlying aspects. The truth is that the macroeconomic context does not worry us at all, on the contrary. The United States is the world’s great locomotive, even if it is true that throughout the year expectations are directed towards lower economic growth and a slowing job market and on which the Federal Reserve is banking. This context of more moderate economic growth and falling rates is a very favorable environment for financial markets and therefore we are optimistic. I really like to talk in terms of fundamentals. Another problem is the huge increases we have had this year which I don’t like very much.
Q. Do you see the risk of a bubble around AI?
R. I don’t like the word bubble. The moment is very similar to how we started 2025, the assessments are too challenging. At the slightest disappointment, the declines become more marked, volatility increases. The market must now be taken with a pinch of salt, since September we have been thinking that we need to take a break, a certain consolidation is necessary because otherwise there will no longer be the strength to continue rising in the medium term. I still like the tech sector, I love the theme of artificial intelligence and I believe that investments will be monetized. But we all know that this price does not bear the slightest disappointment. We have to be a little more cautious, we are applying some coverage.
Q. Will they underweight the stock market?
R. We have a more neutral orientation, in September we went from overweight to neutral. And the same thing happens in the Spanish stock market, it is too late to overweight the Spanish stock market, even if we continue to be constructive with the banking sector thanks to the improvement in business volumes. We investors pivot and think not like a local investor but like a global investor, thinking about where we can get a higher return.
Q. What are the most interesting markets for investing in the stock market today?
R. We still like the United States, but we prefer to be neutral. And I still like emerging stock markets and China, where economic stimulus is finally having its effect. In Europe I think there are sectors that have been quite affected, such as luxury or healthcare, and it is towards the sectors that have been left behind that we need to rotate our portfolios. Already in December last year I thought that in 2025 politics would be above macroeconomics and so it was. And in 2026 I think it will be the opposite, that is, microeconomic results, corporate results or the issue of artificial intelligence and the ability of companies to monetize their investments will have more weight.
Q. Approximately 80% of Ibercaja Gestión’s assets consist of fixed income. Do you think shareholders regret having missed such a positive year on the stock market?
R. The Spanish participant has a very conservative profile. We have tried all year to do important financial education work, in the sense that the only way to obtain interesting returns is to continue to diversify. The first step was to move from having a target profitability product, the simplest and easiest product, to flexible fixed income management, where we can manage both the duration and the type of asset in which to invest. We use derivatives and hedges to take advantage of increased volatility that may occur in interest rates. We’re heading towards the section of the curve that we see with the most value, over the last four or five years. And moving from sovereign debt to private credit, where we see that we can have more profitability with very, very limited risk
Q. The stock market is still a long way from the fund participant…
R. We are at the first step towards flexible fixed income, something more sophisticated while minimizing volatility for a very conservative client. The next step is profiled funds, with exposure to moderate stocks, with a maximum of 10% of the stock market. Yes, we’ve seen a little more interest in variable income. Even if the percentage that we Spaniards have invested in the stock market is similar to that of the French or Germans. In the United States 60% of their assets are invested in stocks, is another way of thinking about it.
Q. What risks do you see in fixed income currently? Spreads on corporate debt high performance have been significantly reduced, to the point where they are almost equal to investment grade debt…
R. Indeed. What we did was focus on high credit quality debt for this very reason. The spreads that pay the debt high performance They don’t compensate us.
Q. The manager’s current trading asset is Ibercaja Cartera Conservadora, a fund of funds that invests in the entity’s fixed income funds, with a management fee of 0.7%. Is it worth it for a fund that doesn’t use specialized products from other managers?
R. This is our ultra-conservative client who is taking the first step towards a portfolio in which, depending on the market context, we are moving towards funds with a more or less long duration… In this fund we will actively manage positions, with tactical movements. And if we want to include investment grade corporate debt, the fund that I know best is the house one, which works best and I know which issuers it has in its portfolio. Staying put in fixed income funds is not the same as moving with flexibility. In fixed income it’s the only way for us to get decent returns in the next year.
Q. Right now, where do you see the greatest opportunities in fixed income?
R. We see this in the U.S. debt yield curve, both government debt and private credit. In corporate debt we are seeing that many issuers placing bonds in dollars are paying an additional spread compared to issuing in euros. And we do this by hedging currency risk. It would only remove the currency risk hedge if the dollar reached 1.20 against the euro. I don’t trust it yet, I think we could see some depreciation of the dollar.
Q. What profitability can you aspire to with this active management of fixed income?
R. We should aim for at least 2.5% net. This year we will end up with a 2.5% to 3% stake in this fund and for next year we should aim for something similar in an environment where the curves will remain firmer.
Q. Active management is not enough… And who wants more profitability?
R. This fund is a first step for a very conservative client. Those who want more profitability should switch to a mixed income with at least 10% variable income.
Q. And looking ahead to next year, should we expect more modest returns for stocks?
R. We should, yes. Maybe we will see some consolidation now, which would be healthy, because if not, the truth is that the start of the year will be difficult with such high valuation levels. It will be difficult to achieve returns above these levels.
Q. Will fixed income serve as a refuge in the face of a correction?
R. When it comes to a so-called normal correction, fixed income serves as a haven. This is not what happened in 2022, when central banks lowered interest rates and no assets served as safe havens. But the current situation has nothing to do with this and we believe that fixed income may be uncorrelated with stock market activity and act as a support.
