Trump’s Ukraine plans: experts see “substantial changes”

New American-Russian proposals to end the war in Ukraine are causing international reluctance. Joachim Weber, a security expert at the CASSIS Institute at the University of Bonn, saw a major shift in Russia’s position in a studio talk on the “phoenix on site” program.

Weber said the first piece of information left him “a little disappointed.” After reading the entire 28-point plan, “almost the opposite effect” occurred. There has been a “substantial change from what we have been hearing for three and a half years now”.

Weber interpreted some elements of the plan as a clear departure from the Kremlin’s previous maximum demands:

• There were no demands for a change in the Ukrainian government before negotiations: Russia has gone so far as to demand that the “drug-addicted Nazi regime in Kiev” be replaced first, Weber said. Now there is “no more talk” about it. The plan now states that Ukraine should hold elections 100 days after the end of the elections.

• Less territorial claims: Instead of four annexed oblasts, Russia now offers the prospect that “it will be enough if you get the Donbass, namely Luhansk and Donetsk.” Even if Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, the expert sees progress in the formula for partial withdrawal from the Sumi and Kharkiv regions.

• 100 billion for reconstruction: Weber was particularly surprised by the willingness to “put 100 billion of his frozen assets into Ukraine’s reconstruction fund.”

• Joining the EU is no longer taboo: Ukraine’s membership of the EU is “suddenly fine”.

To experts, these elements are “surprising” – provided that the Russians actually intended them to be binding.

Apart from concessions, analysts also look at key points that are likely to spark discussion in Kiev and Europe. But Weber puts it in a pragmatic context:

• No NATO membership: Weber described NATO membership plans as “a crazy idea of ​​American politics” as far back as 2008. In his view, the abandonment of this perspective “is not a concession” because it was never realistic.

• Ukrainian Army Reduction: He considers the upper limit of 600,000 troops “not at all critical.” In a non-war country, “600,000 men would be enough.”

• The Crimean question is practically excluded: Crimea has been “lost” since 2014, therefore there is no need to talk about it seriously “in this context”.

• Freezing front in Zaporizhia: This is part of a larger territorial compromise framework.

Weber stressed that many of these points still require negotiation – but could allow for rapprochement.

Even though Washington and Moscow conduct exploration behind closed doors, Europe’s role remains important. Weber recalled that European countries de facto kept Ukraine “alive” by funding “the entire state budget” and military aid.

Regarding the fact that the Americans only announced investments – and thereby emphasized their business interests – the expert said:

It is very important to start reconstruction.

For Weber, the plan offered the opportunity that in the future less money would go to destructible war equipment and more to the reconstruction of “a country that had been completely destroyed.”

Weber described the proposal as an “American initiative.” “It’s clear Donald Trump is behind this,” he said. However, the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, remains “fully protected.” Experts interpreted this as a tactical approach: the Kremlin leader let negotiators talk and probe the reaction in the West. That way, if he fails, he can claim that he “didn’t suggest this nonsense.”

Despite all the open questions, Weber saw the potential for entering into serious discussion. The 28-point plan is a “fundamentally negotiable first draft.” Time is running out, “the clock is ticking”. The current constellation could offer a rare opportunity, provided the actors involved use this opportunity for diplomacy. His conclusion: “Take this opportunity seriously.”

Phoenix presenter Constanze Abratzky asked the question. Christian Harz summarizes the conversation.

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