The challenges facing developing and oil-producing countries have proven insurmountable: European countries on Saturday backed away from accepting a global agreement at COP30 in Brazil that did little to meet their demands to move away from fossil fuels, preferring this compromise to the failure of multilateralism.
After two weeks of talks between nearly 200 countries, and a final night of talks in Belem, countries are preparing to adopt a simple text prepared by Brazil’s summit president, to celebrate the Paris agreement and climate cooperation.
But he only called for accelerated action in a “voluntary” way, and only indirectly mentioned ending the use of fossil fuels, taking into account the COP28 consensus in Dubai, and without writing his words explicitly. This is a far cry from plans previously requested by more than 80 European, Latin American and island countries.
“At least he is leading us in the right direction”
“We have to support him because, at least, he is taking us in the right direction,” said Wopke Hoesktra after last night’s negotiations and coordination meeting with Twenty Seven. “We will not hide that we want more, and more ambition in everything.”
French Minister Monique Barbut added that European countries prefer to accept this text because of “the trial that is being carried out against the European people, which means that one of the reasons why we oppose this text is because we do not want to pay money to the poorest countries.”
By 2023, countries committed to “making a just, orderly and equitable transition from fossil fuels to energy systems”, for the first time in the history of the UN climate conference.
Since then, countries that produce or depend on fossil fuels have rejected any attempts to repeat this signal in a multilateral framework.
“Declining” political will.
Analyst Li Shuo, from the Asia Society in Washington, sees the results as “a new inflection point in global climate policy”. “As domestic climate ambitions slow, international negotiations are now hampered by declining political will. As the United States withdraws, other actors are becoming cautious and hesitant,” he said in Belem.
Burning oil, gas and coal is the main cause of global warming.
Countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and India have been singled out by France as the countries that have refused the most, but they are not the only countries to refuse.
Most developing countries did not make the fight against fossils a priority when it came to Brazil two weeks ago. For them, funding is more urgent, and COP30 gives them a small advantage.
The compromise text provides for a tripling of financial assistance for adaptation of developing countries by 2035, compared with the current target of 40 billion per year.
These countries make it clear that many countries, whether poor or developing, do not have the means to switch to renewable energy in the future, or simply adapt their cities or farms to a disrupted climate. They demand additional financial commitments from the richest countries to help less rich countries.
But is that enough?
“Not really. But intergovernmental talks are going at the same low point. But our struggle continues,” a Bangladeshi negotiator told AFP.
isolated Europeans
The agreement plans to hold a “dialogue” on world trade, a first in climate negotiations. China, which is leading a growing country revolt against border carbon taxes, has made this a priority.
The Brazilian Presidency until the end refused to include in its text the creation of a “roadmap” to exit fossil fuels, although this was supported by Brazilian President Lula himself there.
The EU on Friday raised the prospect of leaving Belem “without a deal”. This would be a major failure for the host nation, Brazil, and for the conference being held in one of the regions that epitomizes the environmental problems posed to the planet, namely the Amazon.
But European countries will find themselves “isolated”, according to a delegation member from one of the 27 countries.
These countries do not want to be seen as responsible for a diplomatic disaster at a time when they are trying to keep the global climate regime alive.
“Those who doubt that cooperation is the best thing to do for the climate will be very happy to see that we cannot reach an agreement,” warned COP30 president, Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago.
States must now adopt this text at the closing session.
