Immigration has increased since the summer: That is why more and more Ukrainians are fleeing back to Germany

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Since June, more and more Ukrainian refugees have arrived again. One of the reasons is the massive terror carried out by Russia and its attempts to bomb people’s houses. But domestic policy decisions taken by the governments in Kyiv and Warsaw also played a role.

Russian troops destroyed their homes. His neighbor was murdered. Your children are traumatized. Thousands of families remained in the disputed region of eastern Ukraine until they were evacuated. Carsten Schneider spoke to them. As managing director of Unicef ​​​​Germany, Schneider visited social projects in the Kharkiv region, in places only a few tens of kilometers from the front line. “In the fourth year of the war, families were tired. Many young children only knew about the war. They lived in constant fear,” Schneider told ntv.de by telephone on the train back from Kharkiv.

Although the Russian terror was terrible, many did not want to give up their homeland. Of the seven and a half million children, about five million still live in the war-torn country. “The war looms like a dark cloud over the daily lives of families. Nevertheless, the people we spoke to want to stay in their homes, where they live, in their schools and with their families and forge a peaceful future in their homeland,” said Schneider.

Four out of five children in Kharkiv already struggle with emotional stress disorder. Some of them have impaired language development because of the permanent emergency, Schneider said. Meanwhile, Russia stepped up its attacks, especially from the air. The priority targets are civil infrastructure buildings, such as thermal power plants and substations.

In October, 21,113 Ukrainians fled to Germany

The Kremlin bombed Ukraine into an energy crisis before winter. Power is turned off for 12 to 16 hours every day. There were power outages in several areas. “Every year, before the harsh winter of war, Ukrainian mothers wonder whether they want to escape with their children to western Ukraine or even abroad,” Schneider said. Moreover, Russia not only bombs infrastructure, but also residential buildings, such as in the large city of Ternopil in western Ukraine, which recently killed more than 30 people.

Russia’s massive offensive is one of the many reasons why more and more Ukrainians have been fleeing to Germany since the summer. If you look at previous years, the number is still small, although currently it is increasing. How many Ukrainians flee each month can only be estimated. Ukrainian citizens can stay in Germany for up to 90 days without a visa.

According to the Integration Media Service, reliable estimates are still possible – based on figures from the “Free” distribution system of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees. According to these estimates, the number of incoming Ukrainian refugees continued to decline from the start of the war until May of this year – a total of 7,777 refugees arrived in May. Then it rose again, initially slightly to 7834 in June. There were about 3,000 more arrivals in July. The following month the number fell again slightly, but increased to 18,579 arrivals in September. For October, media services estimated that 21,113 Ukrainians fled to Germany.

The young men have been fleeing military service since the summer

There has been no talk of a sharp increase in refugee movements. For comparison: it is estimated that 18,006 Ukrainians fled to Germany in October 2024, 24,529 in the previous year, and 46,895 in October 2022. However, a change in trend can be seen after the number of refugees had previously decreased over a long period of time.

In addition to the sometimes disastrous humanitarian situation, migration expert Michael Bossong of the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) also cited domestic political decisions by the Ukrainian government as a driving factor in increasing flights to Germany. “Exit restrictions for men aged 18 to 22 have been lifted in Ukraine. One of the reasons the men went to Germany was to avoid military service from the age of 25,” Bossong told ntv.de. But they also worry about building their own future, apart from the war.

In addition, domestic policy decisions taken by the Polish government have an impact on migration movements. Since right-wing populist President Karol Nawrocki took office, the Polish government has tightened its stance on Ukrainian refugees. “In Poland, for example, child support for Ukrainians is now linked to whether the parents have jobs,” Bossong said. Accommodation costs are no longer paid out of pocket like in Germany. This change in the law caused some Ukrainians “when in doubt to choose a better level of social benefits in Germany.”

Berlin cuts citizens’ money to Ukrainian citizens

However, Bossong believes that it is wrong to place too much importance on the social benefits of each country when it comes to that country’s attractiveness to refugees. Migrants also choose their destination countries based on other considerations – including linguistic proximity, job market prospects, and existing networks of friends and family.