EWhat if our daily pleasures became tomorrow’s privileges? This is the alarming and reasonable conclusion of a study published in November 2025 in a scientific journal. Research Letter. Cocoa trees, coffee and vines, exposed for years to increasingly erratic weather conditions, now see their productive futures at risk. Despite agronomic innovation, these sectors are still struggling to adapt to climate variability that has become structural.
To try to limit this drift, some countries are relying on an almost surreal technology: stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Explained by Telegraphthe method aims to “mimic the impact of a volcano” by scattering sulfur into the stratosphere via weather balloons, thereby creating a veil of particles that should reflect some of the sun’s light. An artificial umbrella intended to reduce overheating.
But these devices only offer illusory respite. Although IAS can cool the atmosphere, it does not neutralize other factors that weaken plants: water instability, excessive humidity, or uncontrolled pest proliferation. Stratospheric shade fails to stabilize the water cycle or protect these plants from their extreme biological sensitivity.
The “stratospheric umbrella” illusion
Ariel Morrison, one of the authors of the study, summarizes this fragility: “Natural climate variability cannot be ignored either (…) it produces various consequences and can affect the livelihoods of farmers growing cocoa, coffee and vines. »
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The authors of the study also highlight a paradox: “The reduction of certain risks – such as extreme heat – thanks to SAI may be offset by an increase in other risks, such as irregular rainfall or higher humidity. » Certain hazards, such as water deficits, can be partially controlled by irrigation, but other hazards remain uncontrollable.
And the consequences are already visible in prices: according to the NielsenIQ agency, quoted by Franceinfo, the price of chocolate bars has skyrocketed by 55.2% since 2022, due to weakening of the harvest due to extreme conditions and fungal diseases. Proof that without radical measures, the product can quickly fall into the luxury category.
