Unlike before, the election results in the last three regions voting between today and tomorrow are very predictable (but in politics never say never…): in Veneto the center-right will win while in Campania and Puglia the center-left. But beyond who will be regional president – Stefani in the northeast, Fico and Decaro in the South – the three games contain interesting ideas from a national perspective. And given the outcome of the current game at face value, a referendum on fairness seems to be a major concern for the parties. A round of administrative elections determined by a draw – will end 3 to 3, with each pole controlling its respective region: Marche, Calabria, Veneto on the other side and Tuscany, Campania Puglia on this side – starting right and left in pairs in a race for Yes or No to Nordio’s law. Which makes the race even more exciting. Also because the competition is quite tight, according to Minister Nordio yesterday: «When will the referendum be held? I think the first half of March.” And once again: «We have a technical time determined by the Constitution and the law». March was approaching. Schlein (who the night before had thought he would win the regional elections by a landslide) was eager to ride the wave of victory in the local elections, and instead had to accept the situation in the region as less unequal and in favor of the left.
GOALS 2027
A Yes victory in the referendum on separating career judges would help Meloni’s front and, once the electoral law is created with the elimination of electoral districts, the path to Meloni’s victory in the 2027 election will become easier. But if the left’s victory is due in a matter of hours in Campania and Puglia, Schlein and his team are ready to get a strong boost from these results – two very important regions and with several million votes in hand the electorate represents a strong point – given the referendum consultations in March.
And it’s not just this aspect. If the center-left wins with a lead of 10 percentage points or more, as is likely to happen in Puglia and Campania, the projected political elections with this electoral law will be a red alert for the right-wing. That they may not even get a majority of seats in that region of Italy and that means – as Meloni knows well and has been talking about on Via della Scrofa for some time – the risk of losing the political election. So if a 10-point gap occurs in both regions (by the way: how much will De Luca continue to count in his domain? And Vendola?), changing the electoral law by eliminating electoral districts will no longer be a very concrete option for the FdI leader, but rather an obligation.
IN THE MATCH
Yet here we are in Veneto, always with national attention. We will witness Stefani’s Northern League victory. But the stakes for Salvini are much higher: he must recover a strong loss over FdI (who had a full house at the European Championships) and, thanks to Zaia but Zaia and Zaia and in effect Zaia, beat the Melonians or at least draw. Otherwise, this would be an undeniable demonstration of the end of the League’s centrality in the north, in the region where it was based, and its impact would be short-lived, neither in the short nor in the long term. With the League defeated by the prime minister’s party, the Northern League president would be surrounded by a tricolor of councillors, so much so that he would almost become the governor’s representative. Without a clear restoration of the Northern League, any remaining hope of not handing Lombardy over to FdI will be lost. But most importantly, Salvini’s party must step down and take a lighter role in the composition of the candidate list for the next election, if the electoral law does not change and the electoral district remains. The dialectic in Carroccio between Salvini and Zaia is also related to the Venetian outcome.
On the other hand, watch out for the – not full of love – Schlein-Conte pairing. If Conte achieves a boom in Campania or brings the M5S over 10 percent (no easy feat), the race for the wider prime ministerial nomination or whatever it is called will be tough for Schlein. The former prime minister is very intent on succeeding Elly, YouTrend polls say he will beat his rivals in the primaries and his new security and moderate streak (including the pro-Trumpian and pro-Putinian hyper-pacifism that in Italy has more fans than expected, both on the left and the right) gives him a degree of protagonistism and centrality. On the other hand, if Conte’s party barely holds the ball in Campania, Veneto and Puglia (and his starring Fico does not win by a large margin over Cirielli) and the Democratic Party retains its vote and actually increases it, Schlein gains confidence compared to the leader of the M5S but also or most importantly compared to most of his own party who are increasingly less convinced that he is the most ready competitor to face Meloni in 2027. So, between today and tomorrow, look at the Regionals you might get bored but looking at them closely you probably will have fun.
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© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
