America’s FTO list (for Foreign Terrorist Organizations) will have a new member this Monday. Among Islamist and terrorist groups, guerrillas and gangs, one must add the “Cartel de los Soles”. A Venezuelan organization whose existence remains to be proven, according to many experts. This actually gives rise to a network of corruption that is permissive towards illicit activities.
But for American Secretary of State Marco Rubio, there is no doubt about this. “The Sun Cartel, along with other terrorist organizations (…), is responsible for terrorist violence throughout our hemisphere, as well as drug trafficking to the United States and Europe,” said the US Secretary of State.
Most importantly, Washington claims that it is led by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. So, what consequences will adding this cartel to this notorious list have on relations between Venezuela and the United States?
Ousting Maduro from power?
The appointment as FTO comes as tensions between Washington and Caracas have been rising for months. The United States recently deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the Caribbean, along with a fleet of warships, for anti-narcotics operations. They have killed 83 people in around twenty airstrikes on ships suspected to be operated by drug smugglers.
For Caracas, this action is nothing more than an operation aimed at ousting Nicolás Maduro from power and seizing Venezuelan oil.
Add to this the recent words of Donald Trump, who asserted that the days of Maduro’s government are “numbered”, and at the same time the president has authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela. He also mentioned the possibility of negotiating with Maduro. Nicolas Maduro said he was ready to speak “face to face” with Donald Trump, who said he would speak to the leader “someday.” Nothing is planned at this time.
Academic Juan Manuel Trak believes it is “extremely unlikely” that Nicolas Maduro will fall or that the opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, will come to power.
Military attack?
The new classification “opens up a range of possibilities, both military and sanctions, for the Trump administration to continue to apply pressure,” explained Juan Manuel Trak, an academic in Mexico.
The definition of the FTO list does not mention military action, but the US defense secretary said it would offer the administration “many new options.” “This increase in pressure creates the perception that an attack is imminent,” said Juan Manuel Tak.
Bombing exercises in the Caribbean have also been announced by the American army. And American aviation authorities asked civil aviation to “redouble precautions” due to “increased military activity in Venezuela and beyond.”
Alexis Alzuru, a doctorate in political science, envisions attacks on “certain (airplane) runways linked to drug trafficking” far from the city center. “This would be the maximum intervention” Donald Trump could undertake, he said.
Economic pressure?
Leaving the military realm, some economists agree that Monday’s declaration could also continue to strangle Venezuela’s economy, and once again approach hyperinflation. Indeed, Washington prohibits providing “material support or resources” to any organization on the FTO list and Venezuela has been the target of American sanctions since 2019 with an oil embargo.
Additionally, sectors not subject to sanctions could also be impacted by international operators’ fear of sanctions if they continue to cooperate with Venezuela.
And if for now, Washington appears to be turning a blind eye to oil by allowing Caracas to export its oil in secret and by “not yet confiscating” a ship, the FTO classification “could legally open this possibility to them”, estimates oil expert Francisco Monaldi. “Trump could consider asking for access to Venezuelan resources (oil and minerals), in exchange for reducing pressure and then (trying) to carry out some kind of internal transition in Venezuela,” said Alexis Alzuru.
