After disappointment following the release of a 28-point peace plan drawn up by Russia and America, Ukraine found a glimmer of hope from the talks in Geneva. Much also depends on the protagonist: the initial text, apparently penned by the Kremlin, was drafted by Steve Witkoff, sent by the White House and not thought to be hostile to Moscow. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, attended the summit in Switzerland, paying more attention to Ukraine’s future, and was at the center of controversy after several Republican senators made remarks to him: “The plan outlines Moscow’s demands.” Furthermore, the State Department clarified that the 28 points were developed by the United States, with contributions from Moscow as well as Kiev. The fact is that in Geneva, first at the Intercontinental Hotel, then at the headquarters of the American permanent mission, in meetings with the Ukrainian delegation led by Zelensky’s right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, Rubio opened up to such changes to accommodate Ukraine’s concerns. With him was US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, a new face in the negotiations who is close to Vance. In parallel, there are moves by three European countries – Britain, France and Germany – which on behalf of the EU are preparing some kind of counter-proposal. Or more precisely: there were 24 corrections to the plan. In return, there is a green light to withdraw Russia to the G8 in the event of a peace agreement also agreed to by Kiev. In short: the major maneuver to change the text that we started, which is very detrimental to Ukraine, is intensifying.
OPTIMISM
Let’s start with Rubio’s words in Geneva at the end of the meeting with the Ukrainian delegation: «We are really making progress, so I’m very optimistic that we will reach an agreement in a reasonable time frame, very soon. And I’m very optimistic that we’re going to get something done here. I hope before Thursday.” The tone of his counterpart, Ukraine’s Yermak, was similar: «We have made tremendous progress and are moving towards a just and lasting peace». According to the Washington Post, the plan is not a “take it or leave it” plan for Zelensky. And in Geneva, ideas were put forward to build a defensive wall that would strengthen security guarantees for Kiev: there was talk of a ceasefire, the supply of long-range Tomahawk missiles, the removal or modification of restrictions on the army. The maximum of 600 thousand men imposed by the plan the matter, to which Trump demanded a response from Zelensky on November 27 (Thanksgiving Day), could be revised. The American President yesterday put more pressure on Kiev, raising a theme dear to him: ingratitude “Ukraine’s leadership shows no gratitude,” he wrote in Truth Social Zelensky, who could leave for Washington on Thursday, the time to make a decision is therefore approaching, so as not to be squashed by a 28-point plan that includes, among other things, the total surrender of the Donbass by de facto, non-membership. NATO enshrined in the Constitution, the recognition of Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk as Russian territory by the United States, Zelensky hopes to compare with the delegations of the United States and Ukraine there are representatives of the Commission and the Council of the European Union, NATO, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy: “A brief report on the results of the first negotiations has been received from the members of our delegation. Also under consideration – but the weight of which has yet to be assessed – is a European counterplan. What does it predict? Introduction: yesterday it emerged that the 28-point draft is linked to an annex providing protection for Kiev from the US, similar to Article 5 of NATO. Added to this are European corrections: the size of the Ukrainian army is hypothesized to be significantly more than the plan agreed by Washington and Moscow, with 800 thousand troops; NATO membership is not excluded by the Constitution, but is left to the consensus of the members of the Atlantic Alliance; NATO fighters to be stationed in Poland; remove point 3 of the plan stating that “Russia shall not interfere in the affairs of its neighbors and NATO shall not undertake further expansion”; NATO will not deploy troops in Ukraine, but the three European countries’ texts say “in peacetime”; territory exchange negotiations will start from the line of contact (so no total surrender of the Donbass, no recognition of Crimea as Russia’s); elections in Ukraine “as soon as possible” (and not in 100 days). The basic problem remains: how will Moscow react? As the Geneva summit moved into a second round in the evening with the involvement of European representatives, Zelensky warned: “It is important not to lose sight of the main goal: stopping war and preventing its recurrence. And to achieve this goal, peace must be dignified.”
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
