This long electoral fall has done little to change the national political picture. In all six regions where voting was held between September and November, the president or governing coalition was reconfirmed: 3 regions (Tuscany, Campania, and Puglia) remained center-left, and 3 regions (Marche, Calabria, and Veneto) remained center-right. Everything is good or bad according to predictions.
– Read also: The right wing won in Veneto, the center left won in Campania and Puglia
However, this situation of substantial balance is not as clear-cut as it seems: in the sense that voting in various regions, involving some 19 million potential voters, suggests that the prospect of a national political challenge has begun. If until a few months ago the supremacy of the center-right was an accepted fact, now the comparison between the two coalitions is more balanced, and therefore the outcome of the next elections looks uncertain.
There are two reasons, beyond detailed data analysis. Giorgia Meloni appears slightly lower in the balance of power in the right-wing coalition, and perhaps for the first time since he became Prime Minister, namely since October 2022, he had to accept the results of the elections, which took place in Veneto, were far below his expectations. His leadership is unquestionable, and the approval that the right continues to obtain after more than 3 years of rule is a remarkable fact; However, the results of the League in Veneto and Forza Italia in the South suggest that it will not be easy for Meloni to enforce his decision in the coming months.
But on the other hand, Elly Schlein feels comfortable with this result, which allows her to reject the increasing criticism she has received in recent months, especially from representatives of her political field. The Democratic secretary can claim to have consolidated a coalition, the so-called “broad field,” that until last year was somewhat fragmented. The “stubborn unity” line, as it is often defined, effectively made the progressive front competitive, without having a major impact on the PD itself.
So much political analysis. Turning to the raw data, the most significant is Veneto. The win for Alberto Stefani, a promising young player from the League, was as big as expected. However, the thing to remember is the competition within the coalition. FdI leaders have long hoped to establish themselves as the first party, and have waged an election campaign entirely devoted to this goal, also focusing on the positive precedent of the 2024 European elections, when Meloni’s party obtained 37.6 percent, almost three times the League consensus (13.1).
🇮🇹 Projection 3 – List – 2025 Veneto Regional Election
Stay tuned with us for more results on our channel @TgLa7 #marathonmentana #Veneto Elections pic.twitter.com/n0asA5kiFb
— SWG (@swg_research) November 24, 2025
But also thanks to the candidacy of former president Luca Zaia as leader, who is still highly regarded among Venetian society, the League has reversed the balance of power: they gained more than 36 percent, doubling the FdI (around 17.5). And such a clear disconnect greatly emboldens “northern” League exponents who oppose at all costs the transfer of northern territories to FdI: a discussion that will especially apply to Lombardy in the coming months. Meloni aimed to get Veneto first with his own candidate and then also claim Lombardy: after having to hand over the nomination to Northern League member Stefani, and after poor results on his list, ambitions for Lombardy were also scaled back.
At the same time, the Fratelli d’Italia also experienced weakness in the South, although on a smaller scale. In Campania, the coalition candidate is Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli, who is a big figure in the FdI, and ministers, national leaders, and even (irritatingly) Senate president Ignazio La Russa have spent a lot of money in the final weeks of the election campaign.
But Meloni also lost coalition supremacy there. In fact, Forza Italia at 12 percent got almost 2 points more than Fratelli d’Italia. It is true that 10 percent of FdI should be added to most of the 7 percent obtained in Cirielli’s list, but the result is also far below Meloni’s expectations, in a region where in the 2020 regional elections, although slightly, FdI has been the leading party in the coalition. Something similar also happened in Calabria, where Forza Italia obtained a very positive result at the beginning of October (18 percent, plus 12.4 of the presidential list) and much higher than the FdI result (which stopped at 11.6). Therefore, Campania is just a little confirmation.
It is no coincidence that various leaders of the Italian Brothers, including Giovanni Donzelli, have renewed calls for reform of the electoral law. With the current election, if the vote were held today, there would be a big divide between the right and the center-left, and Meloni’s coalition would risk, according to preliminary but reliable projections, electing only a handful of senators from down under from Lazio. But the fact that changes to electoral rules have now become more urgent for Meloni weakens his position a little: knowing that this issue is his priority, Lega and Forza Italia will have more room to negotiate. Especially on an issue they have opposed for some time: the idea of including a rule to indicate the coalition’s prime ministerial candidate on the ballot paper (which Meloni clearly belongs to). This will be the most complicated political negotiation in the next few months, and Meloni is not approaching it in the best way.
Meanwhile for Schlein, it is important for him to perform well, especially in Campania. In Veneto defeat was certain, as was great success in Puglia with Antonio Decaro (and in both cases, despite the merits, the party still did well on the ballot). But in Campania, Schlein is played a lot. He had to undertake complex mediation to get the candidacy accepted along with Roberto Fico, an M5S member deeply disliked by the outgoing president, Vincenzo De Luca, who was also one of the PD members most critical of him. However, with Fico’s victory, Schlein obtained three positive results.
🇮🇹 Projection 3 – Puglia regional elections 2025
Stay tuned with us for more results on our channel @TgLa7 #marathonmentana #electionsPuglia pic.twitter.com/y6EaY9w9KN
— SWG (@swg_research) November 24, 2025
First of all, they consolidated their alliance with Giuseppe Conte, realizing that only by keeping M5S in the progressive camp would they have any hope of electing his regional president. Second, he reiterated that in any case in the center-left, even in the South, and even in regions where the M5S was stronger than the PD in the past, it was the PD that regained the hegemony of the center-left: the PD list alone took about 18 percent, more than the sum of the M5S list (over 9 percent) and the Fico list (around 5.5 percent). Finally, Schlein reduced De Luca’s vaunted electoral strength, and based on this he threatened to influence Fico and the PD: the list of the outgoing president, “A Testa Alta”, did not even reach 8 percent.
Campania is a good example of how Schlein managed to build a very broad coalition – from the Green Alliance and the Left to the moderates referring to Matteo Renzi: something that was difficult to imagine, a year ago – where the PD was the first party and where almost everyone on average had reason to be satisfied.
🇮🇹 Projection 3 – Register – 2025 Campania Regional Election
Thank you for following us on our channel X and live @TgLa7 #marathonmentana #Campania Elections pic.twitter.com/Jb7jrMEobN
— SWG (@swg_research) November 24, 2025
Overall, considering the 6 regions where voting was carried out with majority electoral law (with the exception of Valle d’Aosta, which had its own rules and political logic), the PD was the first party to get just under 1.8 million votes, compared to the almost 1.5 million votes obtained by the FdI; and the center-left received 4 million votes, compared to the center-right’s 3.8 million votes (this is a calculation based on uncertain data in Puglia, Campania and Veneto, and should therefore be done with great caution).
These election results should be considered as general indications, because in regional elections, people often vote based on a different logic to the logic that drives the electoral flow in national elections, with a greater weight of presidential candidates and councilor candidates, and a lower level of opinion voting: and therefore, it would be wrong to project these figures precisely on a national scale. However, these figures show a greater balance between the center-left and right than a few months ago.
