A “stable” picture, like 85% of the views given to the companies analyzed, but at the same time it must always be monitored with extreme attention, also considering the phenomena that are reshaping the industrial structure across Europe. Italian companies passed the S&P Global Ratings test in 2025 showing that promotions prevailed among the decisions made by the agency: as many as ten companies over the past eleven months compared to only two downgrades, also due to the country’s ranking upgrade that occurred last April. Therefore, they can look forward to next year with confidence, without underestimating the challenges that still await them.
Uncertainty
If 2025 is largely characterized by uncertainty regarding the application of import duties by the United States – a phenomenon that “has a negative impact on economic growth, but also on investment levels” – according to S&P, the future will be open to the question of the relocalization of production by many companies to more competitive regions, especially the United States. «This phenomenon is of course nothing new – explains Renato Panichi, Managing Director of Corporate Ratings by S&P Global Ratings – but this has accelerated due to a series of aspects, such as the search for greater security of supply, the presence of lower energy costs outside Europe, the need to produce closer to the regions where it is consumed and of course also the impetus provided by new commercial policies”.
Sectors
This trend is occurring across the European continent, not just Italian companies, and is more visible in some sectors. “In the chemical sector, where energy costs are very high, production volumes have decreased by 20% compared to 2021, while in the manufacturing sector as a whole the situation is more stable,” Panichi said for example, before getting straight to the heart of the matter. «In some cases, the relocation of activities outside Europe could also mean deindustrialization: the future is yet to be determined, but these signals should not be taken lightly» one of the authors of the report warns. Outlook for Italian companies in 2026 which will be released today at a conference presenting the rating agencies’ forecasts regarding various credit sectors in our country for the next year.
In this case, intervention from European regulators is required. “We need a response that allows us to overcome structural problems in the medium term and prevent the deindustrialization trends that are starting to be felt in some sectors from becoming irreversible” stressed Panichi, recalling how the EU Commission has published a plan to increase competitiveness in the chemical sector, but it has not yet been implemented.
Italian situation
In this respect, Italy seems to be in line with European trends, except perhaps for the benefits already mentioned above, namely the improvement in the country’s ranking and the consequent increase in the credibility of our country’s system which also benefits private companies when they have to refinance on the market. The main distinction to be made is between multinational companies and domestic companies: “Multinational companies are able to shift production to better absorb geopolitical and commercial shocks, this is not easy for many SMEs focused on the domestic market.”
