After archiving the regional branch, there are now still two issues to be resolved: judicial reform, which has been approved by Parliament and awaits a vote in March, and electoral reform, which is still in the development stage. In recent days, it is this last thing that has attracted attention. Why? The results of the regional elections face a reality that, if not paid attention to, could lead to a dead end within two years.
2027 Election
In fact, if the electoral law nicknamed “Rosatellum” is still in effect at the next election, which is expected to occur in 2027, there will be no clear winner. This was expressed by the Cattaneo Institute which, after the last regional elections in Campania, Puglia and Veneto, outlined the most likely scenario for the next elections, considering that the performance of the center-right and center-left groups is similar to that recorded in the regional election cycles held in 2022 to date. With center-right unity and “expansion” as seen in the last election, the only possible outcome is a draw. What sets them apart are the single-member constituencies, the actual battlegrounds where the games will be played. With two different formations compared to the 2022 election, the number of seats will also be very different.
A look at 2022 policies
Let’s replay the recording. We are in September 2022, the far right is marching united, while the broad field is still silent. Center-left parties obtained, overall, a slightly higher percentage of the vote than center-right parties and, consequently, the number of seats was also slightly higher among parties distributed using the proportional method. However, as the Cattaneo Institute recalls, since the three components of the broad camp each fielded their own candidates in single-member constituencies, the center-right won almost all constituencies: 121 out of 147 constituencies, while the opposition, which was divided, only 23 constituencies.
This data alone is enough to understand how different the situation would be if the center-left united. “If we take into account the voting intentions currently estimated by opinion polls – explains the Cattaneo Institute, it is very plausible that, in a national competition in which the center-left presents itself as a single unit, the center-left and center-right groups will gain almost equal percentages of the vote and a number of seats in a proportional distribution.”
The results show that Italy is divided into 5 blocks. North and Center to center-right; the Red Zone and much of the South to the center-left; Sicily, Calabria and Sardinia as the real “battlefields”.
In fact, with the possibility of a draw hypothesized by this research institute, the debate regarding electoral reform is now open again. Based on what has been underlined, “clearly, herein lies the question underlying the possibility of further electoral system reform. Whether a potentially indeterminate outcome is preferable, with the formation of a government supported by a slim majority, or even the formation of a government supported by parties belonging to both coalitions, or an electoral system similar to one that allows both coalitions to celebrate clear wins and losses in the regional election cycle that has just ended.”
The agency provides assistance to the Meloni government, which has sought to implement reforms as soon as possible. Several electoral reform proposals have been put forward: one possibility is a new law based on a regional model, with a majority bonus hypothesis.
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