Victory is synonymous with qualifying for the final phase of the Champions League? Not officially yet. But, with 12 points after this Wednesday evening’s success against Tottenham (5-3), PSG is in an excellent position to access, at worst, the play-off round promised to the clubs ranked 9th to 24th.
If we are to believe Opta’s statistical estimates, the European champions, who are currently in 3rd place with a 6-point lead over 25th-placed Union Saint-Gilloise, are actually almost guaranteed to see a European spring as the famous statistician’s simulator predicts that, this season, the qualifiers will be played above the 9-point threshold.
Last year, 11 goals were needed to qualify (only Dinamo Zagreb were knocked out with that total, due to poor goal difference) but Opta estimates that the number needed is less this season due to the number of draws that have been recorded since the start of the season.
Three points away from a place in the Top 8?
What about a place in Europe’s top 8 now, meaning direct qualification to the last 16? The main goal of Luis Enrique and his staff is to ease the schedule in this very difficult season for the Parisian organizations. Here too, Paris is in a good position.
Opta predicted before day 5 of the Champions League that places in the top eight of the league phase would be determined by around 15 points (compared to 16 points last season). This means Paris will now only have to drop three small points – the equivalent of one win or three draws – with three days remaining.
PSG still have to visit Athletic Bilbao (10 December) and Sporting Lisbon (20 January) before hosting Newcastle (28 January). Suffice it to say that these challenges are largely within the reach of Parisians.
