The current negotiation between the Valencian PP and Vox to present a candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat to replace Carlos Mazón has a clear parallel with the express pact that elevated him in June 2023. Then, the People’s Party took on a good part of the ideology of the far right, embodied in a 50-point agreement. Mazón managed to enter the Palau de la Generalitat, but the speed with which the pact was signed, in the midst of the electoral campaign, and the evidence of the PP’s willingness to grant Vox the political initiative on social issues to come to power, transformed Pedro Sánchez’s political story into reality, mobilized the vote of the left and hindered Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s prospects of reaching Moncloa.
Now, the party led by Santiago Abascal has even more resources in its favor to impose its guidelines at the regional level on a seriously wounded PP, after having supported a president who has become a symbol of incompetence for a year. Núñez Feijóo’s party has no clear reference to replace Mazón and urgently needs to find a way out of the power vacuum he leaves after being forced to resign due to the criminal investigation into the negligent management of the dana and the disapproval of the victims. If no agreement is reached to find a candidate, elections will be called. In any case, Vox wins.
The precedents and the current electoral situation, unfavorable to the PP and with the possibility of encouraging the participation of the left in the community, lead us to think that the PP will once again bow to the demands of the ultras. It is, above all, about tightening the policy against unaccompanied migrant minors and questioning the Green Deal reached in the European Union promoted by the President of the Commission Ursula Von der Leyen (of the European People’s Party). Last March, in the midst of negotiations with Vox to advance the budget, Mazón had already improvised a statement to rail against “climate dogmatism” and against the distribution of minors. On the eve of the anniversary of the Valencian dana, cited as an example of a climate crisis by experts around the world, the PP supported a resolution by Vox to develop differentiated statistics that reflect “the number of existing blood donors” between “health population” and “migrant population”, among other issues. He also approved holding hunting conferences in schools. On the day of the last mass demonstration to demand Mazón’s resignation, October 26, Vox organized a demonstration against a temporary reception center for migrant minors in Valencia. The closure of these centers is on the table.
The immediate future of the Generalitat thus passes through Vox, which rubs its hands as it tightens the rope with its demands. If an agreement is reached, the far right will see that it is a responsible formation that gives stability to a community still traumatized and rebuilding after the catastrophe that caused 229 deaths; If there is no pact and early elections are called, he aspires to give his best surprise to the PP especially in the province of Valencia and will be more decisive than ever. Valencia can be, once again, the laboratory of national politics. The image of a PP linked to Vox on sensitive issues, or of a Vox triumphant at the polls, would compromise the credibility of the party in Extremadura and Castilla y León, which will have to go to elections in the coming months. And perhaps even to the national PP, as happened two years ago.
