The possibility of the United States ending the government shutdown is putting pressure on stock markets, ending several days of high uncertainty and volatility. The Ibex 35 advances just over 1% and thus recovers 16,000 points, while US futures report gains of the same size. In the last few hours, the US Senate has advanced a bill to reopen the budget tap of the federal government, whose administration has been paralyzed for 40 days, the longest period in the country’s history. This unprecedented situation has generated an almost total blindness of references (the federal agencies that calculate the official data provide only essential services) and has fueled pessimism towards the world’s largest economy. Last week, two private entities released record layoff data (the highest since 2003) and the second-worst consumer confidence data in 50 years.
This pessimism has especially affected technology stocks, whose high valuations have raised the fear of a possible bubble almost daily. The Nasdaq recorded its worst week since April’s tariff wave, 3% (and Friday’s week ended up limiting the declines). Today futures point to a recovery of around 1.5%
Progress toward ending the government shutdown in the United States began late Sunday, which is why Asian stock markets rose between 1% and 1.5%. European stock markets are also up more than 1%.
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, notes that “this means markets may see some short-term relief, but news-driven volatility is likely to continue until there is a clear resolution.” In any case, the market pulse is moderately positive in almost all sectors. The price of oil rises around 1% (even if Brent is still below 65 dollars) and gold becomes more expensive by 2% and recovers 4,000 dollars; Crypto assets are also advancing, over 4% in the case of bitcoin.
The reaction is more muted in debt and currencies; US bonds fall in price, so their profitability, which goes in reverse, increases by about four basis points, while both European debt and the dollar remain stable. The American currency is exchanged at 1,157 units per euro.
“It’s just the first act in what could still be a long political drama, but investors are picking up on every sign of progress,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, told Bloomberg. “They need to understand where the American economy is, where inflation and employment are going, and what the Fed should do next.” Futures currently give a 66% chance of a cut at the December meeting.
Almirall’s strong rise stands out today on the Spanish stock market, by more than 8% after the publication of its quarterly results. In fact, the laboratory infects Rovi, who is the best on the Ibex with an increase of 4.3%. IAG and Solaria also saw strong growth, +3%. On the downside, Oryzon Genomics drops 8% after announcing a capital raise. Within Ibex, Telefónica continued to decline (-0.7%), with much smaller declines for Enagás and Redeia.
Stock Markets – Currencies – Debt – Interest Rates – Commodities
