March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed down -0.19 (-1.20%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -10.70 (-2.37%).
Sugar prices settled lower on Wednesday but remained above the lows reached the previous day. On Tuesday, NY sugar fell to a 3-week low, and London sugar dropped to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low. The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is weighing on prices. On Monday, BMI Group projected a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and last Tuesday, Covrig Analytics projected a global 2025/25 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
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Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past seven months, with NY sugar posting a 4.5-year nearest-futures low (SBV25) last month on signs of higher sugar output in Brazil. On October 2, Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 MT. Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the second half of August increased to 53.49% from 47.74% the same time last year. However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 MMT.
The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Department reported that the cumulative monsoon rainfall in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Another bearish factor for sugar was the recent assertion from sugar trader Sucden that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to ease the country’s sugar surplus and may prompt India’s sugar mills to export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT. India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.
