Has China reached peak greenhouse gas emissions? The country’s CO₂ emissions did not increase in the third quarter of 2025 compared to 2024, according to the analysis published this Tuesday, November 11 in the specialized media. Carbon Summary. If China is still the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, it has managed to stabilize its pollution emissions for 18 consecutive months – a rare piece of good news for the climate.
This trend, starting in March 2024, means that China’s overall CO₂ emissions may fall slightly this year, depending on “what will happen during the last quarter”, according to the assessment of Lauri Myllyvirta, of the Helsinki-based Center for Energy and Clean Air Research.
“While an increase or decrease in emissions of 1% or less may not make much difference from an objective point of view, it has increasing symbolic significance,” note down the report.
Certain sectors in China, which are particularly polluting, have shown encouraging results: pollution generated by the transport sector decreased by 5% this quarter, thanks to the development of electric cars. Cement and steel production also saw a decline in carbon dioxide emissions, while the electricity sector stagnated despite demand increasing by 6.1%. On the other hand, the chemical industry recorded a strong increase.
While this has been happening regularly over the past year and a half, exactly when emissions will peak in China remains uncertain. Still, it’s an important data point for gauging the progress of Beijing, which in September announced its measurable goal of reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions: 7 to 10% by 2035. If this is disappointing, it has the benefit of being there, at a time when Europe still has no clear climate goals and the American government is steeped in climate skepticism.
The United States’ withdrawal from international climate agreements, under the leadership of Donald Trump, allowed China to play a more prominent role in this area – and gain a place at COP30, which opened on Monday in Bélem, Brazil.
