CArlos Lopes, Guinea-Bissau economist and professor at the University of Cape Town, former executive secretary of the ECA (2012-2016), did not mince his words. At the time of the first African G20, he denounced multilateralism with variable geometry. For him, the absence of the United States or China is neither an obstacle nor an advantage: it is a signal that Africa must ultimately rely on its own influence.
Africa Points: So that the G20 is a real turning point for Africa…
Carlos Lopez: If the G20 wants to do the same, we have to stop the rhetoric and do something concrete: actually lighten the debt burden, inject climate finance that is not just green-painted loans, and give Africa a real place in the institutions that set the rules. As long as we talk about a “just transition” but people in cities see no change, it sounds like a speech very far from their lives. The G20 does not control the IMF or World Bank, but it can create a political atmosphere that encourages creditors to mobilize – such as closing the door to a meeting room until everyone finally agrees to face the problem.
South Africa sought to remain “non-aligned” at a time when major powers wanted everything to be black or white.
Will Donald Trump’s boycott weaken Pretoria?
Not too. His accusations of “mistreatment” of whites are denied by all serious sources. This is fuel for his voters, not the reality of South Africa. Diplomatically, his absence caused a stir, but did not shake Pretoria. Rather, it reinforces the idea that the country refuses to be intimidated. If there is fragility, it is in favor of the United States, which seems increasingly unpredictable on the international stage – like a guest who leaves the negotiating table as soon as talks get serious.
Does the absence of Xi, Putin and other figures indicate ambiguity in South Africa?
Most importantly, they show a fragmented world, where everyone makes their own calculations. South Africa sought to remain “non-aligned” at a time when major powers wanted everything to be black or white. In Gaza, he was at the forefront of condemning violations of international law; regarding Ukraine, he tried to play the role of mediator, but some considered him too close to Moscow. It all depends on where you look. It is not Pretoria that is ambiguous, but rather a world that is a field of tension where each absence tells a different story.
Is America’s absence an opportunity? Is America creating chaos?
In the short term, America’s absence allows other countries to discuss climate, debt and financial system reform more freely. But a G20 without the United States is like a team playing without its captain: we can continue, but the dynamics are no longer the same. The United States is not “naturally” a troublemaker, but the combination of polarized discourse, harsh protectionism, and a retreat from multilateralism creates instability that has everyone on edge.
Africa must use more of its own resourcesCarlos Lopez
Without Washington, who funds Africa’s priorities?
Nothing can replace the United States as a regulatory center, but American funding of African economies is not particularly spectacular. Europe is trying to take up more space, China remains important but is moving forward more cautiously, and new players, such as the Gulf states, India and Turkey are increasingly becoming a presence in big projects. But the real answer is that Africa must use more of its own resources: better organized taxation, less capital flight, and ultimately strong regional financial markets. Otherwise, we just change the creditor like changing a bandage on a wound that continues to bleed.
Can Africa absorb American protectionism?
Its overall exposure is lower than that of Europe or Mexico, with Africa’s trade with these countries representing only 9% of the total. But certain sectors and countries are more exposed: textiles, automotive and agriculture. American tariff hikes and jobs will be gone in a week. But this crisis also has the effect of an electric shock: produce more locally, trade more between neighboring countries, and speak with one voice. As the saying goes, it is better to strengthen the roof before the storm comes.
Being in both the G20 and BRICS gives Pretoria a unique positionCarlos Lopez
Can South Africa survive between the G20 and the Brics?
To find
Kangaroo today
Answer
Yes, but it’s a tightrope walk. Being in the G20 and BRICS gives Pretoria a unique position: they can talk to everyone. However, this requires consistency. If the country appears too close to a certain power, then they will lose credibility in the eyes of other countries; if he tries to please everyone, he will convince no one. Its real strength will come from its ability to resolve its internal contradictions – huge disparities, a too-slow energy transition, political tensions – because a country that is solid at home will be more audible internationally. As the saying goes: you won’t be a conductor if you don’t already know how to keep time.
The Self-Deception Trap: Exploring the Economic Dimensions of Charity Dependence in African-European Relationsby Carlos Lopez (Palgrave Macmillan, 2024, 260 pages).
