The Grifols share price once again shows doubts. After the presentation of the third quarter accounts last Tuesday, the stocks recorded new declines, sometimes even losing the level of 10.40 euros this Thursday, as a result of uncertainty about the impact of exchange rates. The stock loses more than 23% compared to the annual high of 13.70 euros (with a decline close to 9% in the last five sessions only), marked at the end of July, with the company’s growth recorded in the second quarter and the confirmation of the return to the dividend. Faced with this scenario, there seems to be a belief among analysts that the price of the securities should be much higher.
According to the consensus of analysts who follow Grifols, the average target price of the stock is 16.03 euros, which implies a potential return of 53%, according to the ranking drawn up by Bloomberg.
And there are some much more optimistic ones, including those from some of Spain’s major banks. Santander reiterated its overweight recommendation, with a price target for the pharmaceutical company’s stock at 22.20 euros, 113% above the current price. CaixaBank also reiterated the target price of Grifols at 18.80 euros, 80% higher than current prices.
In a report for its clients, Santander highlighted that its third-quarter results showed better-than-expected figures, especially in terms of revenue and free cash flow generation. “The good news is that the free cash flow forecast for 2025 has been revised upwards between 400 and 425 million euros,” say these analysts, who highlighted as a negative aspect the cut in gross operating profit (ebitda) brought between 1,800 and 1,850 million due to the impact of exchange rates.
Santander refers to Grifols’ debt refinancing plans. Management expects to refinance maturities in 2027, approximately €2.9 billion, in the first half of 2026, and does not rule out including maturities in 2030 (€2.6 billion with 7.1%-7.5% coupon) and $800 million of GIC debt with 8% coupon. “We believe the refinancing of Grifols represents an important reduction in risk for the stock,” he points out.
CaixaBank, for its part, highlighted the growth in EBITDA, which was higher than expected, and the reduction in debt, which was also better than expected by the market. These analysts evaluated the new guide of Grifols for the whole of 2025, which expects revenues in excess of 2.6 billion euros, and a free cash flow of between 400 and 425 million, compared to a previous estimate of between 375 and 425 million.
Likewise, Alantra raised its target price on the company’s shares by 5%, to 17.86 euros, reiterating its buy recommendation, with catalysts such as continued cash flow generation, deleveraging and reduced financing costs for a revaluation. In a report to clients, Alantra highlighted the company’s plans to refinance in the first half of 2026, ahead of 2027 maturities, with the May 2026 prepayment window for 2030 bonds. “We had planned to refinance closer to the end of 2027, so this advance is a small positive sign, as it should help demonstrate the lower cost of capital, a trend that debt markets are already recognizing more than those of its own capital,” says the company, which points to the fibrinogen delay as the main negative surprise.
In this context, Grifols appears to once again be under pressure from bearish investors on the stock market. Millennium International LP informed the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) that its short position is equal to 0.61% of the capital, while Kintbury Capital set its short position at 0.68%. These investors had reduced their positions over the summer as the pharmaceutical company’s shares rose.
Market sources suggest that these investment bets contributed to the decline in Grifols shares, which, after having touched 14 euros in the middle of the summer, fell to 10.42 euros at the close of Thursday’s session, below the 10.50 euros offered by Brookfield in the failed takeover bid planned last year and which did not go ahead due to the rejection of the board. Of course, there are already those in the market who are starting to talk about a deal.
