analysis
Black-Red clearly made an effort in the coalition committee to demonstrate that they were capable of working and reaching agreement. However, the heated debate that has occurred in recent weeks paints a different picture.
It wasn’t aimed at a wide audience – a sentence Friedrich Merz whispered into Lars Klingbeil’s ear as he left the press conference: “That was great, wasn’t it?” said the CDU Chancellor to the SPD Vice Chancellor.
He would not mind, because on the eve of the coalition committee, from their point of view, the two coalition parties could announce a political agreement that would help the economy as well as employees by ensuring that the measures guarantee employment – an objective on the basis of which the SPD and the Trade Unions could unite easily and undeniably.
Hard debate
Merz sounded satisfied, as did SPD Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, who is more on the party’s left wing. However, Merz’s self-praise seems somewhat unrealistic.
The Chancellor ignored the fact that his coalition was once again preceded by weeks of sometimes violent public debate over military conscription, pension reform and citizen’s benefits – as well as a debate over easing the ban on combustion engines for cars. A major problem that has not yet been resolved, but which specifically impacts many citizens – whether the younger generation serving in the military or the nearly four million working citizens who do not receive information from the coalition.
These people will ignore the recent announcement of air transport ticket tax reductions planned by the Black and Red Party.
The interval when the combustion engine is turned off
On the topic of combustion engines, Merz also made a mistake in front of journalists later that night by announcing a deal that didn’t yet exist – and was immediately rejected by Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, who was also on the podium as a representative of the CSU and fellow coalition members.
At the same time, the mood in the black-red coalition committee does not seem so bad: the atmosphere of doom and crisis like that of the last weeks of the traffic light coalition is very far away. This was also demonstrated by an unintentionally humorous moment when Minister Bas, praising the many unanimous decisions, ended up bantering with Söder: “We showed that we can find a compromise, even though we sometimes argue.” Söder immediately commented: “We didn’t argue today,” to which Bas replied, before they both laughed: “No, not today.”
Mixed picture
“Not today” – but very often before: This is the mixed picture currently given by Black-Red. This divisive picture will likely worry the coalition behind closed doors more than raise a joke – after all, the fledgling governing coalition’s satisfaction ratings fell in the latest DeutschlandTrend to areas where the traffic lights are in the final months of 2024.
Judging from the stumbling start before the summer holidays, the Black-Reds now seem more experienced – if we compare the coalition’s first downfall with the ill-prepared and then failed election of judges to the Federal Constitutional Court, but also the unfulfilled promises and reductions in electricity taxes for everyone, which then only happened in industry, agriculture and forestry. This has an impact on the coalition’s image.
Black-Red is now seeking to provide new assistance of 6.5 billion euros through network cost subsidies for everyone, namely households and companies. The Union and the SPD have accomplished a lot; they proudly showed the full list of bills in the Bundestag this week, some of which are already in the second and third reading stages – that is, they could be passed.
Victim of your own announcement
But then they blur it themselves – the rosy picture they want to paint of themselves, both communicatively and content-wise.
Actually, without necessity, the SPD faction initially sacrificed the voluntary factor in plans to expand military service in negotiations with the Union – even though this was clearly negotiated in the coalition agreement. And then acting without consulting the SPD Defense Minister in charge, Boris Pistorius, may be under pressure from having to reach a compromise.
The minister reportedly went berserk and the young generation of military recruits who were affected felt uneasy for weeks. The coalition committee finally managed to agree on the voluntary nature of what had been negotiated in the coalition agreement. The damage caused by people’s back and forth is still there.
And Merz, not for the first time, fell victim to his big, sweeping announcement after this coalition committee: This should be the “autumn of reform”, but at least citizen benefit reform, pension and care reform, hospital reform – and also the heating law amendments are missing.
Coalition committees should be regular instruments of coalition political routines that work consciously and meet more frequently, and should not simply be held as crisis summits – which was and remains the goal of the black and red coalition. Regarding this, observers agree that there is still room for improvement.
