Sociologist, analyst and president of the Hume Foundation, Luca Ricolfi has studied Italy’s economic and cultural transformation for many years.
In his conversation he reflects on the fate of the middle class, the meaning of the Meloni government’s economic policies, and the evolution of the relationship between politics and society.
Professor, does the middle class still exist?
The classic definition is Sylos Labini’s: self-employed + white-collar worker. It is unfortunate that some of the self-employed are in very precarious conditions, and the lines between blue-collar workers and white-collar workers are becoming blurred (labor force surveys no longer provide a breakdown between blue-collar workers and white-collar workers + managers). Not to mention middle class problems. unannounced work and unusual contracts. It is roughly estimated that white-collar workers (including technicians and teachers, but excluding managers and managers) number about 7 million, self-employed workers number 5 million. Since the total number of workers is more than 24 million, it can be said that about one in two workers belongs to the classic middle class.
Given the existence or nonexistence of classes that can be defined in this way, this maneuver carried out by the Meloni government seems aimed at rewarding middle-income groups in Italy.
“Not really. If we take the total number of taxpayers as a basis, income groups close to the median are excluded from the benefits of this policy, and are instead concentrated in the upper middle class segment. Tax breaks start at 28 thousand euros and reach 50 thousand, but almost 90% of taxpayers are below the 28 thousand euro threshold. The beneficiaries are undoubtedly the middle class (certainly not the “rich”), but the selected segment is equivalent to about 20% of taxpayers (barely: no more than 1 in 2 members middle class)”.
Does the victory of New York’s new mayor raise new questions for Western countries? Is there still a rebellion on the part of people who, having to travel by public transport and having to take care of themselves with public health services, demand better welfare?
“I don’t think this is the determining factor, the reality is simpler: in big cities there are more graduates and diploma holders, and the educated classes prefer the left. Almost everywhere, today as yesterday. Added to this basic fact, is the fact that the new mayor of New York has abandoned the abstract and vague language of most progressive groups. It is very different to promise more inclusion or promise free transportation and block rents.”
In Italy there is a long-standing debate about the contribution that should be required from banks…
“As a reformer and liberal, I should be against it, but in this case I’m quite for it: if you want to redistribute, it’s not unreasonable to start there, especially after prosperous years. It’s much better than an asset tax on individuals.”
We often talk about the “techno-right” or “technofeudalism” in a Trumpian way. However, the so-called “impoverished masses” do not seem to completely reject the conservative political model or sovereignty. Why?
“The question must be reversed: why do poor people prefer the left, which cares about immigrants and sexual minorities? As for Trump and the establishment, I believe that their appeal has two main sources. First, the fact that they target globalization, which many voters see as the cause of their economic difficulties. Second, the lack of concrete, practical proposals from progressive leaders.”
You once said that “the left no longer speaks to the middle class because it costs too much.” What does it mean?
“It’s simple. Promoting the welcome and protection of sexual minorities costs several billion. Reducing taxes on the middle class costs a disproportionate amount. The government has taken note of this and has launched aid measures that cost the public finances (3 billion) but are almost invisible to the recipients (around 30 euros per month).”
There’s a generational theme (which you bring up often). What will happen to the middle class when the new generation comes into contact with the world of work? The so-called new professions, according to a warning from Confcommercio, are putting the pension system in crisis. And this is because the average income is 18 thousand euros.
“The Millennial generation (those born between 1980 and 1996) are between 30 and 45 years old, and therefore have been in the job market for quite some time (at least those who did not choose to be supported by their parents or live on an income). The real innovation will come from generation zeta and generation alpha, which are the next generation (those born in the last 15 years). However, the problem to me seems not to be in the fact that they earn little, but in the fact that most of them decided to move to countries with low wages higher real. Regarding the pension system, I do not believe that its collapse will be caused by the lower incomes of the new generation.
The problem with pension funds in Italy is that they are almost completely dependent on the first pillar (the public pillar), thus consuming valuable resources for other purposes, such as kindergartens and health services. We have known this well since 1997, when the Onofri report exposed two important issues in Italian public spending: debt interest and pensions.”
