Rome, November 25 (Adnkronos) – “Taking into account the stability of constituencies that we have seen in previous regional elections, the results of the elections scheduled in Veneto, Campania and Puglia seem clear. European Elections 2024″. Based on the analysis of this regional round, the Cattaneo Institute tried to develop “an estimate of what could happen in national political elections if the electoral system remains unchanged and the performance of the center-right and center-left groups is similar to that recorded in the regional election cycles held in 2022 to date”.
RISK OF EQUAL OUTCOME – The first fact is that, if Rosatellum remains, “the outcome will be determined, this time almost entirely, by the number of seats won in single-member constituencies”. And with the center-left united and no longer as divided as it was in 2022, the number of seats will be very different. “In the 2022 elections, center-left parties overall obtained a slightly higher percentage of the vote than center-right parties. As a result, they obtained a slightly higher number of seats than center-right parties among parties distributed using the proportional method. In the DPR, within the proportional quota, center-right parties obtained 114 seats” while the opposition “got 130.”
“But since each of the three components of the so-called Campo Largo puts forward its own candidate (in competition with each other) in single-member constituencies” here “the center-right wins almost everywhere: in 121 out of 147 constituencies” while the “opposition” is split “in only 23 constituencies. and the center-right will gain almost an equal percentage of the vote and the number of seats in the proportional quota”.
ITALY SEPARATES INTO 5 – To develop possible estimates of political trends with the current electoral law and “to estimate how big the margin of recovery of the center-left group will be and how big the contestation of the next political elections will be” the Cattaneo Institute considers “as an indicator of the balance of votes that regional presidential candidates received in the election cycles lasting from 2023 to the present, when the recomposition of the center-left group has already begun”.
And the impact could be to divide Italy. “We could find Italy once again split in two, or rather into 5: with the North and Center on the center-right; the Red Zone and most of the South on the center-left; with Sicily, Calabria and Sardinia as ‘battlefields'”. In regional elections, we read in Cattaneo’s analysis, “Meloni’s government is ‘not defeated’ and center-right parties still have a good chance of winning another political election” but “the apparent possibility of channeling the votes of center-left parties to common (uncertain) candidates, especially in the South, also reopens competition at the national level”.
Therefore, this analysis concludes with a reflection on the possibility of electoral reform. “Clearly, herein lies the question underlying the possibility of further electoral system reform. Whether a potentially indeterminate outcome is preferable, with the formation of a government supported by a narrow majority, or even the formation of a government supported by parties belonging to both coalitions, or an electoral system similar to one that allows both coalitions to celebrate clear wins and losses in the just ended regional election cycle.”
