Berlin – It sounds like a sentence from a past Chancellor: “Our country is facing important decisions this autumn… the so-called autumn of reform has long begun.”
Just 65 days after Chancellor Friedrich Merz (70, CDU) said this in the Bundestag, the Chancellor’s former colleagues stood at the airport in Berlin this Friday and described the situation with the first sentence of Shakespeare’s play “Richard III”: “Now winter is our displeasure…”
Departure? Hope? Germans tend to see a bleak period in the Chancellor’s leadership, as the current BILD survey shows: only 25 percent are satisfied with his position. Only his government received worse reception (22 percent).
Despite all the resolutions for reforms and reforms: this is blurred in the fog, the gloomy autumn of reforms. Problems abound: pensions, public money, debt, military service, dour bosses, and no economic growth even under Merz’s leadership. Or as Maybrit Illner put it on Thursday: “City, country, fear – is Germany relegated?”
Everywhere you look: Merz woes. “Handelsblatt” headlines, “Friedrich, the driven”, “Zeit” worries, “Will he survive?”, “taz” jokes, “Union does everything for retirement – by Friedrich Merz”, “Stern” broadcasts: “The Lonely”. And in “NZZ” former Kohl advisor Hans-Herrmann Tiedje (76, former Bild boss) shares his “pain with Merz”.
The beginning had failed
Merz cyclists are now learning: Politics is an obstacle course – one mistake at the first hurdle and you stumble to the finish. If you get that far.
His big mistake at the start: Merz gave up the strategically important ministries of finance and labor/social affairs – just so he could make his “foreign policy from one source” namely the Chancellor.
Important for Ukraine. But a foreign chancellor in a country whose economy is shrinking and migrating, whose welfare state is robbing the country of breathing space, and whose political system is in ruins?
Retirement is an existential issue
The pension issue is an example of Merz’s efforts reaching the limits of his abilities. Haribo-Colorado’s political bag: it’s got everything in it, and not everyone likes it all. The CDU has included active pension funds, the CSU the maternal pension fund and the SPD “holding line” at 48 percent. Now the young Uni crowd is complaining – and it could all fail. Also all the chancellors. Merz currently does not have a majority in the Bundestag for a pension package due to the presence of Unionist rebels.
Problem with sick SPD
If Merz does not want to join a minority government or make a deal with the AfD, he has “no other choice” and is tied to the SPD. He knows that. He took advantage of it and made ruthless progress. He smelled like death under his red coat.
From Kiel to Potsdam to Stuttgart, from Berlin to Brussels, the SPD is growing from within:
► A struggle for power and direction is raging in Schleswig-Holstein – the country’s leaders already have to go.
► In state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, Rhineland-Pfalz and Baden-Württemberg, there is a risk of losing power or becoming meaningless.
► In the Bundestag, the first comrades make an open agreement with the Green Party against migration policy!
► In Brussels, SPD lawmakers stage a coup – and vote against Klingbeil’s wishes against easing the bureaucracy of the Supply Chain Act. Vice-Chancellor Klingbeil of the left-wing SPD was strangled after the traffic light fiasco and coup to seize power. Chancellor too.
A grandee of the Union described Merz’s situation using the example of retirement as follows: A compromise could be made with Klingbeil. But “the responsibility for surrendering to us should not be his responsibility.” And SPD leader and Minister of Social Affairs Bärbel Bas (57)? “He didn’t know any color between black and white – but he wore those pants.”
Also not helping in defusing the pension bomb: Chancellor Merz and his deputy Klingbeil are in Johannesburg (South Africa) this weekend at the G20 summit – powerless on the pension issue. And on Monday, the Chancellor of Foreign Affairs made a flying visit to Angola.
Merz Problem: 70 and little experience
Merz turned out to be the second biggest problem: he got in his own way. In a flood of emotions when it comes to children’s suffering. But increasingly there is a “lack of empathy for one’s own people and criticism from within one’s own ranks,” as one of the faction’s guards described it. Then there are faded or broken announcements. Most importantly, he lacked tools and experience!
Worse still, Merz, who had never led a ministry or company, moved to the Chancellor’s Office with a team that also lacked government experience!
Team Merz: black on the heart, green behind the ears. Merz “and his young, arrogant, but inexperienced entourage completely underestimated what it would mean 1. to have a Chancellor and 2. to have to govern with the SPD,” said a former manager of the ruling CDU.
Two examples are mentioned repeatedly: Merz office manager Jacob Schrot (35): Political and management experience: zero. He now runs the Chancellor’s Calendar and the National Security Council.
And: Chief Chancellor Thorsten Frei (52, CDU) – a tragic figure. Popular with the Bundestag factions and highly respected by the SPD – but overwhelmed by the Chancellor’s enormous power center. Free, as everyone in the coalition agreed, would be better off as leader of the parliamentary group.
Spahn Problem
To save pension funds and the chancellorship, the CDU and CSU have now roped in someone who is only on probation: union faction leader Jens Spahn (45, CDU). He now has to sort out the retirement mess! Spahn’s task: Find something that can be sold as a success to the Union and SPD rebels.
Flashy: The CSU is keeping a low profile, just wanting to quickly get their hands on the billion-dollar mom’s pension fund that no one wants but them. Because there is a CSU party conference in early December and Bavaria holds local elections in March. Bad news for Spahn: CSU boss Markus Söder remained stubborn for a long time.
If nothing works in the coalition, the man who has saved Merz (and Spahn) from fire on several occasions will have to take over again: CSU Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (55).
Rescuers need any more? Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (55, CSU)
Either way: the retirement solution should be in place by next Sunday. First attempt: The coalition committee will meet on Thursday – but no one is expecting a breakthrough on pensions yet. However, the package must go through the Bundestag before Christmas. Otherwise, the CDU active pension (2000 euros tax-free for working retirees) will not start on January 1st.
And now, Chancellor?
The final straw in the pension dispute – if no one gives in: Merz could link the vote on his pension package to a vote of confidence – and save his governing coalition. The young Union rebels had to follow him, grumbling. The loss of the vote of confidence would plunge the republic into further political chaos amid the biggest economic crisis in its history. This price would be too high for the retired rebels.
But the question of trust was a tool that had a powerful side effect: in the first year of his term as chancellor, Merz had to take the last resort of a reluctant chancellor. Political power looks different.
Many in the CDU/CSU hope that Merz will finally let go of his excessive consideration of the SPD.
Even more important is the Union Grandees: The Chancellor must exchange staff! Top of the wish list: Chancellor Frei or CDU General Linnemann, for example, should take over Spahn’s faction. This is also an opportunity for a cabinet reshuffle.
But, as two people close to the Chancellor described it: He is stubborn, which also gives him increasing resistance in his party. One: “He doesn’t even want to think about whether he needs to change something in terms of style and personnel.” He missed the best time for castling in a sign of his leadership strength after the summer. Now he has to do it under pressure – or under pressure.
One Union leader told BILD: “This is something we have to talk to him about calmly – in the next few years. He has to change.”
