Some of the keys to elections:
Who goes to the ballot. Polls, at least before the ban on revealing them went into effect on November 1, show Jara coming first and Kast second, so both would be in the second round in a month. Therefore, if this scenario did not occur on Sunday evening, it would be surprising. Will Kaiser be able to beat Kast?
The relative importance of finishing first. It is important to obtain the first majority, even if this fact has no necessary correlation with the second round. Everything suggests that Jara will get the highest percentage, which does not mean that he has a better chance of beating Kast in the runoff. It is expected that there will be five to nine points gap between first and second, so outside this range it will be considered surprising.
If Kast doesn’t pass. In the unlikely scenario in which Kast does not go to the runoff, but the libertarian Kaiser goes, the transfer of votes from the right is not entirely assured considering the second round.
The dispute for third and fourth place. The dispute for third and fourth place is open. A few weeks ago it seemed like a given that Matthei would come in third, but this picture was called into question with the Kaiser surge that the polls were starting to show before November 1st. If Kaiser and not Matthei remained in third place, it would be a serious blow for Chile Vamos, of the traditional right.
Second round. There is no opinion poll showing a victory for Jara over any of the right-wing candidates in the second round.
To learn more about these keys and learn about others, read Rocío Montes’ article here.
