The increase in the number of cigarettes does not cause shocks to the cigarette market, all of which will benefit the illegal market or more precisely smuggling. Not only that. By expecting gradual increases in tobacco prices, the cigarette market in Italy can avoid being overwhelmed by the radical reform of the tobacco product excise (TED) policy currently being carried out by Brussels, with unprecedented increases in risks on cigarettes, pre-cut tobacco and cigars, as well as new taxes on alternative products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco and nicotine packs. Therefore, the government provides a new tax calendar set scheduled excise increases over the next three years. Overall, the cigarette sector will guarantee the movement of more than one billion euros in three years, but with the possibility of planning market options without penalizing different price ranges.
Increase in cigarette excise rates
With this premise, the excise tax increase as predicted in the first draft of the maneuver would impact cigarette prices by 14-15 cents in 2026, and reach a total of 60 cents in the three-year planning period. In 2027 the increase will be more limited, ranging between 12 and 10 cents per package, while in 2028 the price increase for blonde hair will be around 12-13 cents. This is of course considering that companies can still decide whether to pass on all consumer price increases or absorb them in whole or in part.
Higher increases for shredded tobacco and cigars
For “homemade” cigarettes with shredded tobacco, the price increase per “bag” is of course higher, reaching around 50 cents in 2026. It must be said that compared to 20 classic cigarettes contained in a pack, the price increase in the first year will actually reach 22 euro cents. The increases would then stop below 10 cents per year in 2027 and 2028. Even on cigar cigarettes, the increases envisaged in the draft maneuver are larger: for 2026 they would be about 28 cents per pack. Also in this case, if the increase is compared with 20 traditional cigarettes, the price of a cigar will be around 12-13 euros in 2026 and around 11 cents per year for the next two years. An almost necessary and most important option is to look several years into the future when Ted’s directive on tobacco will be implemented. In essence, both the government and the company chose to push through the increase immediately to avoid, as mentioned, a shock to the market with the introduction of EU regulations.
Heated tobacco
For heated tobacco, the estimate is an increase spread over a three-year period that could reach an increase of 42 percent by 2028. Translated into cents, it could be 12-13 cents for next year and under 10 cents in the next two years. Also in this case the aim is to avoid possible negative impacts with the presence of TED directives. However there was no visible improvement in the cigar.
In sachets with nicotine no more than 16.6 milligrams
For nicotine packs, the draft maneuver does not regulate any intervention with excise, but regulates the main regulations regarding the characteristics and elements that must be contained in nicotine packs, but the most important thing is to set the maximum limit of nicotine per single pack that is used for consumption, namely 16.6 milligrams. Not only that. Another significant intervention that emerges from a reading of article 28 of the current draft maneuver is the obligation to sell nicotine “sachets” to tobacco traders, thereby excluding online sales. The elements that must be included on the packaging, which are currently regulated administratively, are an indication of the nicotine dose, a health warning, and the fact that the product can only be marketed if it is equipped with a child safety cover. To be honest, all the warnings have been adopted by the manufacturers marketing their products.
