Shares of eDreams fell by more than 30% on the stock market on Wednesday, after the online flight booking company presented its results and cut its forecasts yesterday after the market closed. The company explains that it expects cash EBITDA to be 155 million euros for fiscal 2026, compared to the previous forecast of at least 215 million euros.
The decline is said to be mainly due to a €52 million downward shift in Prime’s deferred revenue as the company introduces the monthly/quarterly payment model, with the remainder at Ryanair’s lowest and most conservative level of access.
Margins will decline to around 15% in 2027 and then return to around 23% in 2030.
Oddo analysts point out that the second quarter results are in line with expectations, “but the downward revisions are disappointing, given that the strategic objectives (no longer valid) were only announced at the end of January,” Bloomberg reports.
“We understand that there is more significant growth potential from 2028 onwards, but in the meantime operational performance will have deteriorated and appear to undo all the efforts made in recent years,” adds Oddo.
Sergio Ávila, from IG, assures that eDreams has multiplied its profits several times in Spain thanks to the success of its subscription model, even if the pace of new Prime members is moderate.
“Here the market will look less at the earnings headline and more at the subscriber growth curve: if it is perceived that this is just a normalization after very strong years, the stock has room to recover and reevaluate the guidance for 2026,” adds the expert who adds that it is “a value to keep on the radar, but with a focus on subscriber momentum, not this quarter’s EPS”.
For his part, Santander analyst Carlos Treviño lowers his recommendation on eDreams Odigeo from best in the market to neutral and has an indicative price of 7.20 euros.
eDreams Odigeo reported a net profit of 31.5 million euros during the fiscal first half of 2026, which ended September 30, a figure 24 times higher than the 1.3 million in the same period last year.
The company earned 47.1 million euros in the first six months, almost six times more than the 8.1 million euros in the previous period.
Furthermore, eDreams revenues grew by 5% in the period, reaching €343.8 million, while cash revenues decreased by 6%, to a total of €339.7 million. Added to this are the fixed costs which increase by 400,000 euros, mainly due to the increase in personnel costs linked to the greater number of employees.
For its part, eDreams’ gross operating profit (Ebitda) recorded 94 million euros in the middle of fiscal 2025 (+16%), while the adjusted Ebitda doubled, reaching a total of 98 million euros.
