Education: Forecast: the number of students will increase until 2034, then it will decrease

Number of students in Bavaria According to current calculations by the Conference of Ministers of Education, the figure will continue to grow significantly until 2034 – and then decline. But even in 2040, there will still be more children and young people receiving an education than today – both in the Free State and nationally. States use the now-published calculations, among other things, to plan school buildings, personnel needs, and individual support measures.

From around 1.68 million students in Bavaria last year, the number is expected to rise to almost 1.81 million by 2034. By 2040, around 1.80 million children and young people are expected to attend general education and vocational schools between Aschaffenburg and Rosenheim.

Also more students nationwide

Nationwide, there were about 11.2 million students in 2024 and there will be nearly 11.8 million in 2032. The nearly 600,000 additional children and teenagers is roughly equal to the total number of students in medium-sized federal states such as Rhineland-Palatinate, according to calculations by the Conference of Ministers of Education. Converted to all of Germany, this equates to around 24,000 additional classes or almost 1,200 new schools. In 2040 there will be around 11.3 million students.

The President of the Conference of Ministers of Education, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Minister of Education Simone Oldenburg (Left), explained: “We must set the course for today: with sufficient numbers of teachers, modern infrastructure and reliable digital tools. Education is the basis for social cohesion and the economic future.”

The estimates are based on figures for the 2023/24 school year and state population estimates.

© dpa-infocom, dpa:251110-930-271665/1