Elections in Baden-Württemberg: How Cem Özdemir wants to win

Books were important to German politicians before the election campaign – despite the decline in the number of the educated middle class and even though one or two politicians no longer cared about literacy issues. So the current state election campaign in Baden-Württemberg started in a very German way: The 37-year-old CDU candidate, Manuel Hagel, has announced a book for early 2026, he published the anthology “75 Years of Baden-Württemberg – 75 Votes”.

And the first comprehensive biography available on top Green Party candidate Cem Özdemir. This fifty-nine year old man recalls many stages of his political life and can tell so many stories from his childhood and youth as an Anatolian Swabian in Bad Urach that 243 pages could easily be filled.

“Building Bridges” is the title of the book by Johanna Henkel-Waidhofer and Peter Henkel, and of course it is about the question of how the Green Party can become the candidate of the center of society in these times and whether Özdemir can repeat Winfried Kretschmann’s unique success on March 8, 2026.

Former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer traveled from Berlin to Stuttgart on Monday to present the book. At a small winery northeast of Stuttgart, Fischer reviews several decades of shared greening history; his statement in the book was intended as a “speech of hope” for the top candidates: “When others took a step back, Cem always came back, that’s a great skill in politics. He was the comeback kid.”

The winery is just a few kilometers from Fellbach-Oeffingen, the small Catholic region where Fischer spent part of his youth. Fischer spoke about the long journey the two Green Parties took, how they shared offices as MPs in Bonn in 1994 and fought over who was the best employee. He repeatedly brings up the similarities in their political biographies: growing up in this country, the eternal clashes with the federal party, this “tough shop,” the decades-long struggle for environmentally friendly government policies. “The poll wasn’t brilliant, it’s not your fault, it’s the Green Party’s fault at federal level.”

Fischer is 77 years old, he strikes a supportive tone for the country, concerned and almost age-friendly: He does not want a weak CDU, a strong CDU is almost “constitutive” for democratic stability, but he does not understand why the CDU does not rely more on Konrad Adenauer in foreign policy. “The CDU is working in Berlin to reduce your chances of getting elected; the CDU is a party created by the Christian Democrats. So don’t lose your courage.” The top candidates now need room to move, the people of Baden and Württemberg often vote “unorthodox”, in the end personality decides. “They don’t want unprepared politicians.” Cem with “Swabians from Albabrisskante” can still do it.

The initial position of the election campaign was bad for the Greens: the traffic light government and former Economy Minister Robert Habeck had permanently damaged the party’s image. At the start of the traffic light period, the Green Party in the southwest was able to break away from national trends in surveys – that was because of the Kretschmann bonus. Lately it no longer works.

In 2019, the Green Party was also able to introduce the issue of climate protection to society, and they benefited greatly from this in the state elections in 2021. The situation is different today, the party has not found a comparable issue, the ecological issue has become a ballast in the severe economic crisis. As a result of this traffic light policy, the Green Party’s reputation suffered in medium-sized cities and rural areas, including in Baden-Württemberg. “People are often convinced when we say that in economic policy we want to be in the dark with green ideas. Today, people no longer accept that easily because of the high costs of the energy transition and because of the tense economic situation,” said an environmental official.

Özdemir’s answer to this dilemma was: maximum possible personalization, maximum party independence, central course, as an expert in practical governance, the green election campaigners even wanted to give a guest role to the mayor of Tübingen Boris Palmer, who was ostracized in some parts of the party. Almost all of Özdemir’s political interventions so far have been aimed at the political center: cars with combustion engines must remain registered after 2035, he addresses the societal problem of immigration more clearly than almost any other Green Party, and in education policy, trained educators and social workers are taking over from the CDU by suggesting that children and teenagers up to the age of 16 be banned from using TikTok. Before Özdemir declared his candidacy last fall, he traveled extensively within his party.

In Kretschmann’s era, the left did not play a major role, but that has changed due to the huge increase in membership and the rapid growth of Heidi Reichinnek’s left wing regarding the media. For the first time since the founding of the country, the Left Party was able to enter the state parliament: the Gaza war, the January vote on migration policy with votes from the AfD, the similarities between the CDU and the AfD on migration policy, social issues, the failure of the Green center program under the leadership of Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck provided support to the party, especially in university towns that are very important for the Green Party. Özdemir wanted to involve former Green Party federal leader Ricarda Lang in his election campaign, but unrest was still felt on the party’s left wing. Özdemir currently only cares about the center and ignores classic left-wing issues. He still lacked a strategy for big cities.

Realos in the southwest sees it differently and recommends that Özdemir heed what they often say to the CDU when it comes to distancing themselves from the AfD: imitating outsiders’ positions will only encourage voters to choose the original position. “In the federal elections, we lost more to the CDU than to the left. Things are different in the federal government,” said one of the younger Ultrarealos members. The Greens were able to establish themselves in middle-class neighborhoods thanks to Kretschmann.

Realos still hopes that Özdemir can increase his output from the current 20 percent to around 26 percent. In contrast to Robert Habeck, Özdemir is not an interesting figure; he can explain politics to citizens without being a know-it-all. The current state election is a mayoral election; the more popular candidate wins. So Realos have high hopes because they also know that if the Greens go into opposition, they will again become a special party in the coming years, both in Baden-Württemberg and in the federal government.

While the Greens are betting everything on the party’s neutral candidate, Özdemir – he will win the election outright – Hagel is relying on a familiar combination: mobilizing core voters in the countryside and promising to modernize the country in the spirit of Lothar Späth. On the one hand, Hagel offered voters a “modern conservatism”, on the other hand he built a “golden bridge” for AfD voters and made strong statements regarding migration policy, trying to drive a wedge between Özdemir’s centrist and his party.

On Thursday evening, Cem Özdemir and Manuel Hagel sat together on the podium for the first time. Candidates from the FDP, SPD and AfD were also present. The Baden-Württemberg Chamber of Commerce and Industry was invited. “Our company rarely has concerns of this magnitude. Government consumption increased by 25 percent,” said Chamber of Commerce President Stefan Roell. For Hagel it was a home game. “The hut was on fire,” he said.

The candidates were then asked their opinions on implementing state truck tolls. None of the candidates want to know that. Cem Özdemir doesn’t think much about it either. He spontaneously followed Joschka Fischer’s recommendation and decided to support the cause and oppose his “shop” sensibilities. The Green Party initially promised to introduce truck tolls by 2027.