Rostock political scientist Wolfgang Muno has an important idea about the future State elections emphasized in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. This “may be a crossroads in how democracy will develop 36 years after unity and the first freely elected state government in MV.” “Exciting and important months” are ahead for the country. Considering the possible government constellations after the elections, the situation remains very confusing.
On weekends he has AfD At Demmin’s state-level party conference, they reiterated their claim to form a single government after the elections. Muno said he believed it was unlikely he would win an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament. However, if parties like the FDP, Greens and BSW gain a certain number of percentage points but ultimately fail to pass the five percent threshold, the AfD might gain 40 percent of the vote to gain an absolute majority in the state parliament.
A survey conducted in late September showed that the party in MV reached 38 percent – more than double compared to the 2021 state election. SPD With a level of 19 percent, this party’s popularity is only half compared to the previous election. According to a survey conducted by Infratest dimap on behalf of the NDR, the Unity Party remains at 13 percent, which is the lowest election result in history since the fall of 2021.
Muno: Don’t underestimate SPD and Schwesig
“It’s still not possible to say how well the AfD is doing; surveys are not election results,” Muno recalled. “It can be assumed that the party will grow and whether it will become the strongest party is not yet completely clear; current opinion polls suggest the same.”
According to Muno, the AfD lacks willing coalition partners. That CDU for example, having to join the alliance as a junior partner. Acting as a supporter of this right-wing party is unlikely to please many CDU supporters in the country as well as the federal CDU, according to the scientist’s assessment.
According to Muno, SPD should not be underestimated either. “Schwesig and the SPD were often in a bad position, but then put in a tremendous final push in the election campaign and won clearly.” It could happen again. “Moreover, Schwesig is clearly going to issue the slogan ‘Me or the AfD’. That and the incumbency bonus, that might be enough again.” This was demonstrated by the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in 2021, where Prime Minister Rainer Haseloff’s CDU won more than 37 percent of the vote.
© dpa-infocom, dpa:251123-930-328360/1
