What if the national or even international context interferes with the municipal elections in March 2026? Facing the shocks that French society has experienced since the previous elections on 15 and 28 June 2020, in the midst of a health crisis, we wanted to measure the evolution of French society’s expectations of their mayors and municipalities, to find out whether the distrust that occurs at the national level also permeates the local level.
The answers provided by our Ifop survey for La Tribune Sunday will not fail to attract the attention of some 34,000 city councilors and 600,000 municipal elected officials from France and abroad, a few days before the show and the Congress of Mayors held from November 18 to 20 at the Porte de Versailles in Paris.
Co-author with Brice Soccol of a book on the subject, “Scarf and storm. Facing the mayor, unexpected distrust» (Éditions de l’Aube), Frédéric Dabi, director general of Ifop, fears that “the mayor who became a scapegoat will pay a heavy price for the unprecedented political crisis in our country on the eve of the runoff”. Our survey provides some clues, although overall, we observe great continuity in mayoral popularity, an island of stability in the current chaos.
If 62% of French people said they were satisfied with their mayor, this number was actually reduced by 2 points compared to September 2019… Most importantly, more citizens said they were “dissatisfied”, namely 38% (+2 points). It is lower in small cities, the number of dissatisfied people even reaches 42% in large cities with a population of more than 100,000 people.
Difficult mandate
“The mayors, the pillars of this Republic, are suffering from the political eclipse at the national level and are increasingly called upon to become emergency workers of the Republic.”supports Frédéric Dabi. We measure this change with several indicators, all of which point to increasing public demand for the mayor to provide concrete solutions to their difficulties. Therefore, more and more French people believe that since the last election, their municipality has changed for the worse rather than for the better: 30% versus 29%, a small gap but one that is increasing in large cities.
However, paradoxically, satisfaction with living in the municipality is still very strong: 85% of French people feel comfortable where they live. But the assessment of the work achieved during this mandate is more severe when it comes to its “environment”: 35% of the population is dissatisfied with the measures taken, especially in medium-sized cities, sub-prefectures in France that feel abandoned by public services and the State.
During the period of the mandate given to the mayors, between the Covid crisis, the surge in inflation and energy prices and the war in Ukraine, “everything happened as if the population had decided to over-invest in the place and increased the level of their demands in relation to the elected officials in their area”. This impatience, characterized by increasing violence against mayors, is reflected in our survey as we look at the evolution of the defining issues in municipal elections. Among the 13 priorities that Ifop put forward to the 2,525 people in question, the top quartet did bear the brunt of national policy failure and State impotence.
Not surprisingly, human and property safety was a top priority, with 76% of respondents, or 8 points more than in the same survey in 2019. This was especially true in small and medium-sized cities, those with populations of up to 20,000 people scored 79%, compared to 71% in large cities. A sign of widespread insecurity or feelings in rural France that feel abandoned by the State.
Clearly, the French put the onus on the mayor to find answers to their concerns. In fifth place among the defining issues, we also find the fight against drug trafficking, a topic that was not even measured in the 2019 Ifop survey and is now making headlines.
Health, a crucial topic
The second priority is the management of municipal finances, a sign of growing concern about dwindling resources in state-dependent cities, which are heavily indebted, thereby undermining the city government’s ability to invest. Mainly because citizen consumers do not intend to pay more for an increase in their demand: the level of local taxes is considered one of the determining factors in voting for 61% of respondents.
And finally, the third major local problem is the provision of health services, a sign of France’s exasperation in the face of medical shortages. Once again, this issue is more important because of the small size of the municipality (68% of residents of cities with a population of less than 10,000 people took it as a determining criterion in voting). Once again, it is the lack of effectiveness of the national health policy that is the responsibility of mayors, who nevertheless have no additional means to meet these new requirements.
Of course, these initiatives are being rolled out at regional level through health centers, but “the risk is that, in the absence of expected results, mayors will bear the brunt of this wave”, underlines Frédéric Dabi. Quoted in his book, Arnaud Robinet, the mayor of Reims, put it bluntly: “citizens are increasingly becoming consumers of services, but they want free services”. Expectations “are becoming more and more individualized,” added Olivier Bianchi, Mayor of Clermont-Ferrand.
One of the main issues that is likely to come up in the March 2026 elections is of course the housing crisis. This will also be an important determinant in vote share, especially in cities with populations of more than 50,000 people. 82% of French people recently surveyed by Ifop believe that it is difficult to find accommodation in France and that responsibility here can also backfire on mayors. We know the famous “builder mayor, loser mayor” formula: it could be canceled next year.
Even if housing and urban planning are only ranked 7th in priority, this is still far ahead of the fight against climate change, and ranks last in the current ecological “clash”. Bad news for eco-friendly mayors? After their 2020 wins in Lyon, Bordeaux, Strasbourg, Grenoble, Poitiers or Tours, 2026 is expected to be much more uncertain, while the emergence of security concerns at the forefront could strengthen candidates from the right and the RN.
“If we refer to previous elections, whether in 2008 for the ruling right-wing group or in 2014 for the left-wing group, the vote share at the national level was still relatively small at the regional level,” said Frédéric Dabi. Local issues remained in first place, with 60% of the vote. But the question is starting to change: to “do you want your mayor re-elected?” », France provided a response from Normand, with a score of 50/50, while 54% “yes” and 46% “no” during the Ifop survey in September 2019… Lesson to ponder, 55% of residents of cities with less than 10,000 inhabitants want to reappoint their mayor.
In contrast, in cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants, 53% (compared to 47%) would like to see him go… If in Paris or Lille the outgoing mayor does not run again, which opens the game, this result would give pause in Lyon, Marseille, Bordeaux or Toulouse…
Especially since the selection of cities in March 2026 will be based less on the results of the outgoing teams (determining 57%) than on projects and programs from the existing list (determining 71%). However, a candidate’s personality will count more (51%) than their political label (39%). In short, for the month of March 2026, the game has not yet been made… And the campaign will take place with the Damocles sword of possible dissolution that could affect the next mayoral election…
