Bosnian Serb leader candidate Milorad Dodik, who is barred from running, was declared the winner of early presidential elections on Sunday evening. Sinisa Karan received 50.89% of the vote, compared to the 47.81 votes obtained by his main rival, Branko Blanusa, according to results published by the Central Election Commission, based on counting at almost 93% of polling stations.
“Our candidate Sinisa Karan won today’s elections. There is no doubt about it,” launched Milorad Dodik even before this publication was published in front of his supporters gathered at the headquarters of his nationalist party in Banja Luka, the capital of Republika Srpska (RS), the Bosnian Serb entity. Milorad Dodik led RS for two decades before being recently removed from office by a court after a serious political crisis.
Six candidates are running. Sinisa Karan, 63, a former Interior Minister and confidant of Milorad Dodik, is the favorite against Branko Blanusa, a 56-year-old professor of electrical engineering at a university, whose candidacy is supported by several opposition groups.
The RS, along with the Croatian Muslim Federation, is one of two autonomous entities that make up post-war Bosnia. The President appoints the Prime Minister, promulgates laws, but without a majority in Parliament, his powers are limited.
The new president of the entity, which covers half of Bosnia and has about 1.2 million voters, is expected to stay in power for just one year, before general elections in October 2026.
The vote is expected to end a period of turbulence in Bosnia, which saw a duel between Milorad Dodik, who is close to Moscow, and the International High Representative – responsible for honoring the 1995 peace agreement – pushing the country into its most serious political crisis since the end of the intercommunal war (1992-1995).
The High Representative has broad powers: he can impose or change laws, dismiss elected officials… The prerogative has been constantly criticized by Milorad Dodik, who has stepped up separatist threats and insults against the current international envoy, Christian Schmidt, a former German minister who took office in 2021.
“This election was organized by Bosnian Muslims and Schmidt,” Milorad Dodik said on Sunday after voting in his hometown of Lactasi. “They wanted to defeat us in Republika Srpska, and now the people have the opportunity to defeat them,” he told reporters, promising “the Republic of Serbia above all else.”
Dodik “stole everything from us”
After the vote, Brankica Dragojlovic, a retired economist, expressed hope for better days, as her pension of 350 marks (180 euros, $206) was barely enough to make ends meet. “What we have experienced so far is very bad… If my son was not here, I would have died of hunger. He (Dodik) stole everything from us, he should be helping the poor, not taking the money for himself,” he said.
Milorad Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison on appeal in August – a sentence that was commuted to a daily fine – and banned from holding public office for six years, due to non-compliance with the international envoy’s decision. After challenging the ruling, he finally accepted the election of his successor – just before Washington lifted sanctions that had targeted him for nearly 10 years for his separatist policies.
During the campaign, Milorad Dodik claimed that a vote for Karan was actually a vote for himself and his policies, and repeated that Bosnia was an “impossible country” and RS was a “country” that had to “wait” for international recognition.
Milan Golja, a retiree, chose Sinisa Karan because he wanted to continue Milorad Dodik’s policies. “This is all just a big joke made by the West… Dodik has the support of the people,” he said in Laktasi, near Banja Luka.
Meanwhile, Branko Blanusa explained that the RS was especially “threatened” by his opponent’s policies: “he humiliated the RS institution for his own interests and wealth, which is why he is now on the people’s blacklist”.
