How has the terrorist threat evolved in France ten years after the November 13 attacks?

Ten years after the attacks of 13 November 2015, the terrorist threat is still very much felt in France, recalls in franceinfo, Wednesday 12 November, Céline Berthon, general director of Internal Security. “We must not forget because there is nothing to say that one day it won’t happen again,” he emphasized. However, within a decade, these risks have changed. The profile of those involved has also changed, with threats “mainly endogenous”and rejuvenation in recent years, details the DGSI director.

For Nicolas Lerner, director general of the Directorate General for External Security, it is impossible to say that France will not “never face this threat again”since “The history of terrorism is a cyclical history”. This is why this type of threat, although reduced, “still subject to ongoing monitoring” in the DJSE environment.

Ten years ago, with the existence of Al-Qaeda and ISIS, terrorist organizations had the capacity to attack from abroad with commandos activated in France. But amidst the justice system, intelligence agencies, and targeted attacks by international coalitions, many of the movement’s perpetrators have been imprisoned or killed. Others have abandoned jihad.

Since 2015, although the risk still exists, all attack plans carried out from abroad have been thwarted. From now on, what is worrying is the threat within France itself, which is still inspired by Islamic propaganda, especially from Daesh, through a kind of digital jihad and recycled old videos, sometimes with the help of artificial intelligence.

These frequently radicalized profiles online are increasingly young: of the forty people involved in planned attacks since 2023, two out of three were under 21 years old. In September, minors aged 16 and 17 were charged after planning several jihadist attacks in Sarthe and Paris. Teenagers under the age of 15 are sometimes even targeted by intelligence agencies after conducting research on terrorist methods or weapons.

This rejuvenation, according to Céline Berthon, can be explained by the current strategy of terrorist organizations, which relies on propaganda and the exploitation of images, especially on social networks. A possible mechanism to reach a younger audience, stressed the DGSI boss.

However, some of these projects are still unsuccessful because they are implemented by people who have a psychologically weak profile. Young people recruited by terrorist organizations are often isolated and addicted to social networks. And sometimes very violent images that have nothing to do with jihad in the first place, such as videos of murders carried out by South American cartels.

The platform’s algorithms direct these minors to beheading scenes and ISIS propaganda. Swept away, these young people are sometimes radicalized without ideological consistency: some even switch from ultra-right movements to jihadist movements.

Since October 7, the Jewish community has also been specifically targeted, through the Israeli embassy in Paris, synagogues and schools. More than half of the failed plans since the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel two years ago were related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the situation in Gaza.

Regarding the terrorist threat in Central Asia, Nicolas Lerner emphasized that the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISKP), established mainly in Pakistan and Afghanistan, has been the target of terrorist attacks. “main axis of action” from DJSE “for the last two years”. Because “most of the projects involving ties between ISIS sympathizers in Europe and outside organizations involve ISIS in Khorasan”explained the Director General of DJSE.

By the end of 2025, he estimates this “The threat associated with ISKP (Islamic State in Khorasan) is not as high as it was a few months ago, thanks to the actions, once again, of dismantling these cells. In recent months, twelve senior ISKP leaders have been arrested by police and services in these countries”Nicolas Lerner’s list.