America’s labor market will remain in the gray area for longer than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday confirmed that the official monthly employment report for October will never be released, a direct result of the federal shutdown that paralyzed the government for 43 days, from October 1 to November 12.
In an extraordinary update to its statistical calendar, the BLS said the report now appears as “ canceled », failed to carry out the necessary investigations. “ Data cannot be collected retroactively », the agency explained, saying that the absence of a budget caused civil servants responsible for unemployment surveys to become technically unemployed.
The federal government has warned that such a scenario is possible, but this is the first time in decades that a full month of key indicators has fallen off the economy’s radar. Therefore, the unemployment rate in October will never be known.
But the BLS emphasizes that “ survey data (…) for October 2025 will be published together with data for November 2025 “. Concretely, only October’s job creation numbers will be published – in a joint report with November – but not the unemployment rate. This joint publication is expected to be published in November. December 16, which is after the next Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
That absence complicates the Fed’s task
This new episode of statistical disruption comes at the worst possible time for central banks. The latest available official data shows that job creation has stalled, a situation that has prompted the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate twice to support activity.
The next step now looks much more uncertain. Monetary officials have difficulty assessing the true strength of the labor market. Lack of official data creates a vacuum » in macroeconomic analysis, weakening monetary policy decisions. Some central bankers are afraid to let “ too much inflation » without being able to precisely measure whether the job market is actually weakening.
Change in sentiment among investors
The BLS calendar update immediately influences market expectations. After the last Fed meeting, most investors were still betting on further rate cuts in December. They are now only a minority, according to the CME FedWatch tool, a sign that statistical uncertainty is changing the direction of near-term monetary movements. The closure has halted publication of the September report, which will finally be made public this Thursday.
