The path to bringing Italy out of the infringement procedure is clear, but very narrow. Therefore, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti must be firm or at least compromise on urgent requests not only from his government’s allies. Suffice it to say that, in the last few days, 5,742 amendments (1,600 from the majority) to the budget law have been proposed. Most of these will be dead ends, but tonight the 414 amendments “reported” by various groups should be tabled, in particular, there will be attention to the powers of the government: that is, the amendments that will be most considered and have the greatest chance of being approved. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is expected to hold a majority summit before the commission’s vote on Thursday.
Based on what emerged yesterday, the League’s report includes extending scrapping quinquies to taxpayers who have lost quater scrapping. Furthermore, we would like to thank those who have received the determination letter and have submitted their SPT legally. There will also be changes to the tax increase on short-term rentals (between those who want to cancel it and those who want to limit the rate to 23%) in addition to a new gold tax and possibly a 2 euro tax on packages arriving outside the EU. The three majority parties – Fratelli d’Italia, Lega and Forza Italia – have called for a halt to the tax increase on capital gains derived from crypto assets to 33%. Meanwhile Forza Italia asked for an extension of the household equipment bonus until 2027.
As Nicola Calandrini, president of the Senate Budget Commission and Fratelli d’Italia exponent, explained yesterday, the hope is to close scrutiny of the amendments reported on Friday. Next there will be a political meeting between the government and parliamentary groups. We will discuss with the awareness that the priority is to get Italy out of the infringement procedure, so that the budget deficit is below the 3% threshold. Therefore, the maneuver is the most efficient in recent years (only 18.8 billion). A budget law that is a continuation of other laws already approved by the Meloni administration that, in total, have used 43 billion dollars to reduce the tax burden on workers and families, as well as 17 billion dollars for health care (2.4 billion in this budget law) although the margins are limited by the huge Superbonus burden of 200 billion. In this maneuver, the measures were financed with ministry spending savings of 2.3 billion, 5.1 billion from Pnrr remodulation, and 4.4 billion from contributions from banks and insurance companies. Maintaining budget discipline will strengthen Italy’s reputation in the market, which has already received promotions from Fitch, S&P, Dbrs and on Friday is also expected to receive the blessing of Moody’s. Details that saved the country billions in interest costs. Therefore, it should not be forgotten that the EU loan of 12 billion dollars to finance defense spending is conditional on the procedure being passed.
In order for the European Commission to lift the infringement procedure against Italy, it is necessary to see the actual data of the deficit to GDP ratio in 2025 verified by Eurostat. This data will be available in April and a possible lift, if the deficit is confirmed to be below 3% of GDP, could be carried out in the European Semester spring package.
But not everything can be taken for granted, this depends on how much Italy’s GDP growth actually grows (Europe has cut it to 0.4% for the year) but also on what will emerge from the assessment carried out in Brussels to define the idea of ”below 3% of GDP” according to the new Stability Pact rules: it is not yet clear what will happen if there is a deficit of 2.99% and statistical rounding is carried out by part of Eurostat.
